并购之外的合作——未来的下一条道路？

Restricted - External Afsah Quadri+1 212 412 2343afsah.quadri@barclays.comBCI, USEric Ng+ 1 212 526 2260eric.ng@barclays.comBCI, US BNT327 is a bispecific antibody candidate targeting PD-L1 and VEGF-A with a Phase 3 trial as afirst-line treatment in extensive stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) and non-small cell lungcancer (NSCLC). A Phase 3 trial for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is also planned to startin 2025.The announcement is in line with BMY's past commentary on pipeline opportunities tooffsetupcoming patent expiration while maintaining financial discipline and strategic flexibility. As aPhase 3 candidate, BNT327 has the potential to start contributing to BMY's top line early. Thepayment cadence should also be manageable as we expect BMY to generate FCFafterdividendsand share repurchases of $7-9bn annually—the company'seffortsto deleveraftertheir lastwave of M&A frees up capacity under the company's current ratings as well. Bristol's partnershipmay reveal management's preference towards more conservative business development ratherthan larger-scale M&A to address stagnating sales in the near term.“It is my view that financial discipline andfinancial flexibility drive strategic flexibility. Andthat strategic flexibility is important becausewhen the world changes, as we're seeing now,that gives you degrees of freedom. And also, ifyou find meaningful opportunities to sourceinnovation externally, you have the capacity todo that.”— BMY commentary at a conference in May 2025Pfizer and 3SBioPFE announced a partnership with 3SBio, a Chinese biopharmaceutical company, on May 19 forits SSGJ-707 candidate. Under the terms of the agreement, 3SBio will receive a $1.25bn upfrontpayment and up to $4.8bn contingent on development, regulatory, and commercial milestonesfor a total consideration of $6.05bn. The transaction is expected to close in 3Q25afterfulfillingclosing conditions including regulatory approvals and 3SBio shareholder approval,afterwhichPFE will also make a $100mn equity investment in 3SBio. Pfizer plans to manufacture SSGJ-707ingredients and finished product in Sanford, North Carolina and McPherson, Kansas.SSGJ-707 is a potential bispecific antibody oncology treatment that targets PD-1 and VEGF. Thecandidate is currently undergoing several clinical trials in China (the first Phase 3 studyexpected to begin in 2025) for NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer (MCC), and gynecologicaltumors.Pfizer's partnership represents a strategic move that provides them opportunities to build theirpipeline with attractive international assets (that may have trouble gaining regulatory approvalif acquired directly) while being less cash-intensive. PFE's FCF will likely be pressured the nextfew years as sales are expected to be flat; we expect Pfizer will have $3-5bn of FCFafterdividends and potential reinstatement of share repurchases. Moving forward, we think there isan increasing possibility of Pfizer expanding its partnership portfolio, particularly with obesitycandidates. 2 “Going forward, we are committed to buildingour cardiometabolic pipeline, including obesity,by advancing internal programs such as our GIPRantagonist and pursuing external opportunitiesthat could include partnerships or acquisitions.”— PFE 1Q25 EarningsRelative ValueStill like BMY vs. PFEWe continue to favor BMY over PFE because we believe it has a better growth profile and itslower leverage provides more M&A capacity. BMY's current gross leverage is 2.6x, while Pfizerreached its 3.25x leverage target in 1Q25. Given these factors, we think that BMY will outperformPFE over the intermediate term and expect it to settle 5-7bp inside of PFE. We reiterate ourOverweight recommendation on BMY and Underweight recommendation on PFE.Buy BMY 2054 and sell PFE 2053We recommend a 30y swap, buying BMY 2054 and selling PFE 2053s, as the 30y point hasunderperformed BMY 2034s vs PFE 2033s. BMY 2054s are currently 2bp wide of PFE 2053s butwe think they should be 5-7bp inside.FIGURE 1. BMY vs PFE 30y has underperformed BMY vs PFE 10yOpen in Barclays Live ChartSource:Credit- Barclays Trading, S&P Global Market Intelligence 3 FIGURE 2. BMY vs PFE curveOpen in Barclays Live ChartSource:Credit- Barclays Trading, S&P Global Market IntelligenceSummary of RatingsBloomberg U.S. Credit IndexU.S. HG PharmaceuticalsBRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COPFIZER INCSource: Barclays Research Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Eric Ng and Afsah Quadri, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all ofthe subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related tothe specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contribut