新世界发展：尚未摆脱困境

Issuer ofreport:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN REDUCETARGET PRICE(HKD)3.58SHARE PRICE(HKD)4.79(as of30 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(HKD)Year toHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)52-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesRaymond Liu*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real Estate and ConglomeratesThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedraymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6743Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesREMDHong Kong01/25Target price: 3.58 ◆◆◆ Find out morePREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)3.58UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE-25.3%12,055Free float1,537BBG11RIC06/2024a06/2025e-6.64-0.35-6.64-0.350.00.0-0.03-0.80nmnm4.20.026.220.0High: 5.90 Low: 4.04 Current: 4.79 55%17 HK0017.HK06/2026e06/2027e0.510.850.510.850.00.00.210.419.45.70.00.010.26.93.204.706.20 2Financial statementsYear to06/2024a06/2025e06/2026e06/2027eProfit & loss summary (HKDm)Property development16,12520,51326,85725,344Property investment5,1975,1316,3067,693Hotels & other business14,46011,89512,00812,221Cost of sales(22,933)(24,048)(29,439)(26,445)Gross profit12,84913,49215,73318,814Selling & adminexpenses(6,518)(5,866)(5,572)(5,294)Other gains(2,698)(1,883)246245Net interest expense(4,275)(4,325)(3,180)(2,932)Share of profit from assoc(962)2,384(24)639Changes in fair value of invest properties(3,146)(1,233)00PBT(4,748)2,5687,20211,472Taxation(5,062)(4,230)(4,005)(6,443)Minority interests(1,996)(1,860)(1,917)(2,902)Net profit(11,807)(3,522)1,2802,127Net impact of property rev reserve, others4,916(2,640)00Core profit(16,722)(881)1,2802,127Cash flow summary (HKDm)Cash flow from operations42,624(19,834)10,75711,150Capex912(1,093)(1,660)(676)Changes in investments26,323(2,139)39(1,047)New shares issued0000Dividends paid(1,258)000Others(94,465)29,268(12,200)(6,519)Net change in cash(25,864)6,202(3,064)2,908Cash at beginning53,26427,40033,60130,537Cash at end27,40033,60130,53733,445Balance sheet summary (HKDm)Shareholders’ funds179,832172,519173,823175,311Long-term liabilities114,438134,279137,751128,587Minority interests45,05746,91748,83451,736Deferred tax and others11,87312,05512,22212,393Total capital employed351,199365,770372,630368,026Fixed assets224,780226,156229,227231,017Other assets104,124107,218109,099112,139Current assets116,254138,286127,107123,819Total assets445,158471,660465,433466,974Ratio,growth and per share analysisYear to06/2024a06/2025e06/2026e06/2027ey-o-y changeRevenue-34%5%20%0%Operating profit-65%58%81%32%PBT-173%-154%180%59%Reported EPS2718%-70%-136%66%HSBC EPS-373%-95%-245%66%Ratios (%)ROIC ex-exceptional5%-16%-1%1%ROAE ex-exceptional3%-9%-1%1%ROAA ex-exceptional1%-3%0%0%Operating margin10%15%23%30%Core profit margin-47%-2%3%5%Interest cover ex-exceptional (x)0.10.51.52.1Netdebt/equity72%89%83%77%PB (x)0.070.070.070.07PE (x)(0.7)(13.7)9.45.7Dividend yield4.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%Per share data (HKD)Reported EPS (diluted)(4.69)(1.40)0.510.85HSBC EPS (diluted)(6.64)(0.35)0.510.85DPS0.200.000.000.00Source: Company data, HSBC estimatesNew World Development: NAV breakdownParticularsHK Development propertiesHK Investment propertiesOfficeRetailResidentialOthersMainland China-Development propertiesMainland China-Investment propertiesOfficeRetailResidential and othersHotelsSG-Development propertiesListed sub & assoc at market valueNew World Dept Store (825 HK) (72%)Financial investmentsGAVNet debtEst NAVFarmlandEst. NAV including FarmlandSource: HSBC estimatesESG metricsEnvironmental IndicatorsGHG emissionintensityEnergy intensityCO2reduction policySocial IndicatorsEmployee costs as % ofrevenueEmployee turnover (%)Diversity policy*GHG intensity and energy intensity are measured in kg and kWh respectively against revenue in USD’000Source: Company data, HSBCNWD (discount)/premium to NAVSource: LSEGDatastream, HSBC estimatesPrice relativeSource: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 30 May 2025-90%-85%-80%-75%-70%-65%-60%-55%-50%-45%Jan-19Financials & valuation:New World Development Risksto our viewKey upside risksinclude:1) strong salesperformance in its Kai Tak projects; 2) faster-than-expected capital recycling to improve its financialposition; and 3) a resumption of dividend payments. ValuationWe maintain our Reduce rating on the stock with a target priceof HKD3.58. Our fair value target price is based on a targetdiscount of 86%, or 2.25 SD below the historical average, appliedto our NAV per share estimate of HKD25.60 (all unchanged).Our target discount is based on our valuation framework, whichfactors in business diversification, strengthening rental income,and policy risks. For