6月现金流解读：欧洲主权供应月度报告

Restricted - External Max Kitson+44 (0) 20 3134 1456max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays, UKPratham Hukmat Kingar+91 (0) 22 6175 2018prathamhukmat.kingar@barclays.comBarclays, UKAlessandro Di Spirito+44 (0) 20 3555 0515alessandro.dispirito@barclays.comBarclays, UKMoyeen Islam+44 (0) 20 7773 4675moyeen.islam@barclays.comBarclays, UKRohan Khanna+44 (0) 20 7773 0533rohan.khanna1@barclays.comBarclays, UK FIGURE 2. Year-to-date versus rest-of-year, gross and net EGB supply breakdown by countryJan-Maysupply (A)RedemptioNet supply(A-B)EstimatedQT (C)Net supplypost QT (A-B-C)GrosssupplyRedemptions62-349613212081-341151736774-3611116111644-246969512902914222302317201301371414014101120-32316145-1610-6-60304-155310142363-140503610440EGB supply: key tables and chartsFIGURE 1. Year-to-date gross bond funding by sovereignProjected 2025gross bondfunding €bnEstimated YTDgross bondfunding 2025, €bnEstimated % of2025 grossbond fundingABGermany265133France360187Italy350189Spain177108Belgium4329Netherlands4023Portugal2113Finland2314Austria4529Greece87Ireland85Slovakia127Slovenia51Total1356746Source: National Treasuries, Barclays Research FIGURE 6. 2025 EGB supply: projected split by maturity bucket and month (€bn)5-7y10y15-20y30y+LinkerRedemptionsof which:conventionalofwhich:linker3275291263131039423315567670344717117118105135138181067171040371310149577183128285585803626117569690261863244440312625195525203630108512312303021865565605334038380106164793918217204131221033428262232051892704229131651650715421191121721703903921761146782279032Note: chart shows estimated DV01 of EGB supply for weeks commencing the given date.Source: National Treasuries, Barclays Research FIGURE 22. ...with significant inflows in intermediate-durationFIGURE 23. ...and longer-duration funds...-4-2024681012JanFeb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec20252024202320222021YTD inflow, Europe long termgovernment bond funds €bnSource: EPFR, Barclays ResearchEuropean bond fund flowsFIGURE 21. European government bond funds holdings have seen significant YTD inflows...-1001020304050JanFebMarAprMayJun20252024202320222021YTD inflow, Europe government bond funds €bnSource: EPFR, Barclays Research UKKey tables and figuresThe DMO plans to hold six gilt auctions (two short, two medium, one long, one IL), one gilttender (long) and a syndication for a new index-linked bond maturing on 22 September 2038 inthe week commencing 9 June. We estimate that total gross supply in June will be £20.4bn butthere will be significant support from both redemptions (£44.3bn overall but only £14.7bn to themarket, with the remainder to the BOE APF) and coupon flow (£7.6bn) that will largely matchgross supply.FIGURE 26. Planned gilt supply FY2025-26 (£mn)£mnAuctionsSyndicationTendersSub totalUnallocatedTotal% of allocatedAuctionsSyndicationsTendersTotal Sales% of sales completedAuctionsSyndicationsUnallocatedRemaining SalesAS at 28 May 2025Source: UK Debt ManagementOfficeand Barclays ResearchFIGURE 27. Weekly gilt supply: previous four weeks vs next four weeks (£mn)w/c28-Apr-255-May-2512-May-25 Gross Issuance Planned Gilt Sales FY25/26ShortMediumLongILTOTAL116,50073,70017,80020,400228,40016,00012,00010,50038,5001,4003,176117,90089,70029,80030,900270,07629,024299,10044%33%11%11%Gilt Sales FYTD20,66214,6444,4893,85343,647--3,983-3,9833,176---3,17623,83714,6448,4713,85350,80520%16%28%12%19%Remaining Sales95,83859,05613,31116,547184,753-16,0008,01710,50034,51729,02495,83875,05621,32927,047248,294Weekly/Monthly Gilt Supply (£mn)RedemptionsNet IssuanceCouponsNet Cashflow6,63506,63506,6355,72205,72205,7227,59807,59807,59814 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Moyeen Islam, Max Kitson, Rohan Khanna, Alessandro Di Spirito and Pratham Hukmat Kingar, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in thisresearch report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) nopart of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays