nykaa 2025财年第四季度：强劲的美容业务势头被时尚业务利润率所抵消

F26EF27E0.490.83FinancialsF25AF26EF27ECAGRRevenues (M)79,56398,843124,403--Gross Profit (M)0.440.440.44--Gross Margin (%)43.643.644.4--EBITDA (M)4,4385,8708,195--EBITDA Margin (%)5.65.96.6--Net Earnings (M)628.671,4032,359--CFO (M)(2,207)975.032,584--Valuation MetricsF25AF26EEV/Sales (x)7.4EV/EBITDA (x)133.5101.0Reported P/E (x)920.9412.5Close Date30 May 2025NYKAA.IN Close Price (INR)Price Target (INR)Upside/(Downside)52-Week Range229.90/149.65ASIAXFYEDiv YieldMarket Cap (INR) (M)EV (INR) (M)PerformanceYTD1MAbsolute (%)24.14.618.1ASIAX (%)6.02.4Relative (%)18.12.113.1Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Price Performance, 1YRINR240INR220INR200INR180INR16006/2409/2411/2402/25NYKAA.INASIAXwww.bernsteinresearch.com LINKS TO OUR RECENTLY PUBLISHED REPORTSIndia Internet: Zomato & Swiggy: How do they stack up ? (May 2025)India Internet: Quick Commerce playbook improving. Top pick Zomato (Apr 2025)India Quick Commerce: Disrupting With Speed (March 2025)Zomato: Quick commerce - Playing the Long Game (Feb 2025)Swiggy : A Game of Two Halves - FD excites. QC in the waiting (Feb 2025)Zomato: Get Big Fast... Get Fit Later (Jan 2025)India Internet: 2025 Outlook - Quick Commerce - Top of the Menu (Jan 2025)Swiggy: Delivering Innovation. Initiating at Outperform (Jan 2025)India Internet: Zomato & Swiggy- How is the stack-up ? (Dec 2024)India Internet & Emerging Consumer - Retail vs Quick Commerce - Battle of the Decade ? (Nov 2024)Zomato: Riding the "Rocketship". Top Internet pick (Oct 2024)OVERALL FINANCIAL PERFORMANCENykaa reported inline revenue performance with overall GMV growth of 27% YoY (-9.4% QoQ) & Revenue rising 24% YoY(-9.1% QoQ). Segment-wise Beauty business maintained growth momentum delivering GMV growth of 31% YoY). Fashionsegment GMV growth was inline at 18% YoY, however continued to see margin pressures declining to -10.4% driven byelevated marketing spends. Overall margin improved led by Beauty (up 30 bps QoQ to 6.5%). We find current Nykaa valuationsexpensive at ~65x EV/EBITDA as it prices in leadership in online beauty segment. Maintain Market-Perform.GMV MIX - BPC & FASHION SEGMENTSOverall GMV declined -9.4% QoQ/ +27% YoY to INR 41.02 Bn in Q4FY25, with 75% of overall GMV coming from beauty segment.GMV growth in BPC was strong at 31% YoY, with high demand for premium beauty products from international brands. FashionGMV growth was at 18% YoY.INDIA TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA & INTERNET 2 Consolidated net revenuesstood at INR 20.62 Bn , grew 23.6% YoY, aided by increase in GMV for BPC. BPC net revenueswere INR 18.95 Bn (+25% YoY), while fashion revenues were INR 1.61 Bn (+11% YoY).EXHIBIT 2:Net Revenue (INR Mn)8,85310,9849,73311,48412,30814,62813,01714,21815,07017,88816,68017,46118,74722,67220,62046.6%35.9%31.4%40.6%39.0%33.2%33.7%23.8%22.4%22.3%28.1%22.8%24.4%26.7%23.6%Q2FY22Q3FY22Q4FY22Q1FY23Q2FY23Q3FY23Q4FY23Q1FY24Q2FY24Q3FY24Q4FY24Q1FY25Q2FY25Q3FY25Q4FY25Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysisMargins beat:Gross profit margin expanded 40 bps QoQ/150 bps YoY to 44.1%. Gross margins expansion led by highteneddemand for premium products from international brands and focus on cost control measures by the company. EBITDA margingrew 30bps QoQ to 6.5%. PBT margin was 1.9% (+75 bps YoY) and PAT margins was at 0.9% (+38bps YoY).INDIA TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA & INTERNET Fashion growth.The Fashion segment grew 18% YoY showing revival signs driven by expansion in core categories like Indian& Western wear and focus on premium offerings along with content driven marketing. The Beauty segment saw robust growthwith a surge in demand for premium products, expansion of retail footprint with 19 new stores, and success of home-grownbrands.EXHIBIT 5:GMV YoY growth (%)24%25%29%32%25%24%25%31%13%27%29%26%15%10%8%18%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Q1FY24Q2FY24Q3FY24Q4FY24Q1FY25Q2FY25Q3FY25Q4FY25BeautyFashionSource: Company reports, Bernstein analysisCUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT - BPC & FASHIONAnnual Transacting Customers for BPC increased to 15.8 Mn, +7% QoQ, while Fashion ATC grew by 3% QoQ to 3.2 Mn. Monthlyaverage unique visitors (MAUV) increased for BPC to 38.0 Mn (+19% YoY). Fashion MAU increased to 22.2 Mn (27% YoY). Beautyvisits increased to 393 Mn (+30% YoY), while Fashion visits increased to 174 Mn (21% YoY)INDIA TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA & INTERNET 4 Orders per customer:For the BPC segment, order per customer declined to 3.6x from 3.8x in 4QFY24 (-4.7% YoY). Within theFashion segment, orders per customers expanded to 2.6x in Q4FY25 from 2.3x in Q4FY24 (+15.8% YoY).EXHIBIT 8:Orders per customer - BPC (In YoY %)3.73.74.03.83.83.84.13.6-2.1%1.2%0.2%7.2%2.6%0.8%2.2%-4.7%Q1FY24Q2FY24Q3FY24Q4FY24Q1FY25Q2FY25Q3FY25Q4FY25Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 9:Orders per customer - Fashion (In YoY %)2.32.42.92.32.22.42.72.6-23.1%-8.9%2.2%1.2%-4.9%-1.2%-6.5%15.8%Q1FY24Q2FY24Q3FY24Q4FY24Q1FY25Q2FY25Q3FY25Q4FY25Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysisOVERALL ORDERSOverall order volumes increased to 11.4 Mn, -4.7% QoQ/+21.6% Yo