明智（WISE）：从Revolut2024年报中解读：故事分化

2024A2025E2026E1,172.71,362.31,638.91,965.3241.8273.0273.5241.80270.50275.87333.4358.6385.1 2027E318.1337.04458.8 Hannes Leitner * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4712 | hleitner@jefferies.comMarco Maglioli * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8626 | mmaglioli@jefferies.comCharles Brennan * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4140 | cbrennan@jefferies.comShimoni Agarwal * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7029 8192 | shimoni.agarwal@jefferies.com The Long View: WiseInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Wise is a leading global cross-border money transfer company that usestransparent pricing, speed, and a user-friendly interface to try to disruptthe bank-dominated market for personal and SME customers.•Through its FinTech offering, Wise powers various banks (e.g., Monzo,N26), directly competing for consumers' wallets.•While the fragmented market has significant growth opportunities, weexpect increased competition from existing incumbents (banks) andmega-techs (Apple, Amazon, etc.), which are broadening their offerings.•However, Wise's multi-product strategy enables it to monetize consumeractivity on a very favorable cost structure, boosting confidence in themedium-term growth outlook.Base Case,1247p, +13%•Wise to continue outgrowing cross-bordertransfer market (6%pa) over the medium term,with additional revenue streams coming frominterest and cards.•We see margins being protected by lowerheadcount needs going forward after buildingthe team in the last two years.•Implied FY23-28E TPV CAGR = c21%.•Implied average FY24-28E EBITDA margin of30%.•DCF-based PT of 1,247p puts Wise at 33xFY26E P/E.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Access & Affordability -As part of its mission to build a faster way to transfermoney internationally while reducing costs for people and businesses, Wise broadens access tofinancial services while improving affordability compared to traditional banking services.2) EmployeeEngagement, Diversity, and Inclusion -Wise operates globally; thus, a diverse and inclusive workforceis critical to its success. Taking active steps to promote gender equality at all levels within the companyis another important aspect.Company Target(s): 1)Carbon-neutral since 2020, targeting net-zero emissions by 2030.2)Increaseinvestment in carbon-removal projects (25% of carbon credit purchases in CY21).3)Increase therepresentation of women in Senior Leadership positions to at least 40% by 2025.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What initiatives have you established to meet your net-zero emissions target?2)Whatare your plans/innovation goals to target underserved demographics in the coming 2-5 yrs?3)Howdo you manage regional and cultural norms across your workforce given the numerous geographies?Please see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,1535p, +40%•Wise's TPV grows at a 25%CAGR overthe forecast period due to strong customeradoption, well-supported by interest income.•Operational gearing lifts implied averageEBITDA margin (FY24-28E) to 32%, leavingupside of 23% to FY28E adj. EBITDA.•DCF-based PT = 1,535p puts Wise on 36xFY25E P/E. Downside Scenario,689p, -37%•Headwinds from banks and emerging mega-tech competition weigh on mid-term growth,resulting in a 12% CAGR.•In such a scenario,the elevating costbase would reduce average EBITDA margin(FY24-28E) to 25%.•DCF-based PT = 689p puts Wise on 16x FY25EP/E.Catalysts•FY25 results due 5 June•Any major FinTech deal announcement•Any movement in benchmark interest rateswouldimpact Wise's interest income oncustomer account balance 2 Key takeaways from Revolut 2024 annual reportIn this note, we provide an update to our previous comparison. While there are still areas of overlapbetween Wise and Revolut, particularly in core cross-border and card-related activity, Revolutcontinues to broaden its product suite, with Wealth and Subscriptions becoming increasinglymaterial and less directly comparable to Wise’s more focused model.Indeed, we note that Wise had 93% from cross-currency in 2019 and the rest from card and otherfees, while Revolut had card and interchange revenue at 45% of total, followed by subscriptionrevenue at 24%. This has evolved to more diversified companies in 2024, as Wise's cross-currencyrevenue accounts for 62%, while Revolut's card and interchange revenue are only 22% followedby Wealth (16%), FX (less frequently traded currencies, 14%), and subscription (14%). In 2024,both companies continued to benefit from NII tailwinds, translating into NII being 26% and 11%of income at Revolut and Wise, respectively.Note: For simplicity, we compare Wise's fiscal year (Mar y/e) with Revolut's calendar yearthroughout the note and on fully loaded NII-basis, while Wise's KPI now only includes the first 1%yield earned (=underlying).Figure 3 - Wise total income trend by type.92%91%6%10%1%30741905001,0001,5002,000FY20FY21X-currency£mSource: Company data, Jefferie