专家邀请：了解轮胎的定价和分销杠杆

Michael Aspinall * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8431 | maspinall@jefferies.comPhilippe Houchois ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.comOwen Paterson * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.com Company DescriptionContinentalContinental is a global automotive supplier with a varied range of product groups, including vehicle dynamics, passive safety solutions, ADAS,engine systems, hybrid EVs, actuators, infotainment and connectivity, air spring systems, compounding technology, conveyor belts, and passengerand commercial vehicle tires. In 2022, Continental generated €39bn in revenue through five main business segments: Smart Mobility, UserExperience, Architecture and Networking, Tire, and ContiTech. Geographically, Continental’s business is concentrated in Europe, with ~50%revenue contribution from the region, outside that it generates 27% of revenue from North America and 22% from Asia. It was founded in 1871in Germany.MichelinMichelin is a leading global manufacturer of passenger and commercial vehicle tires. In 2022, ML generated €28.6bn in revenues from PC andLT tires, truck tires and specialty business. It was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Clermont-Ferrand, France.PirelliPirelli is a leading global manufacturer of passenger vehicle tires with a focus on premium, prestige and motorsports. In 2023, Pirelli generated€6.6bn in revenues at an EBIT margin of 15.1%. It was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.Company Valuation/RisksContinentalWe roll forward our SOTP to avg '25 & '26 and update market multiples to 7.9x for RemainCo and 6.9x for LeaveCo. PT €80. Risks include limitedcontent growth due to legacy portfolio, sharper decline in tire margins, and value destructive M&A.MichelinOur multiple-based €43 PT equates to 2026E EV/EBIT of 9x. Risks include input cost inflation, a return of low-cost imports in North America/Europe, and value-destructive M&A.PirelliOur multiple-based €7.4 PT equates to 2025E EV/EBIT of 9x. Risks include weaker/stronger growth for >18” tires, competitive net pricing, andinput cost inflation.Analyst Certification:I, Michael Aspinall, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Philippe Houchois, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Owen Paterson, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Michael Aspinall is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Philippe Houchois is employed by Jefferies GmbH, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as aresearch analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject tothe FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Owen Paterson is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published o