欧洲_资本_商品_网络_安全_2_I_可再生能源_服务_问题_表格_服务_解决方案

Network security #2: If renewablesare the problem, cables are thesolution European Capital GoodsNEUTRALUnchanged Grid remains among the most attractive end markets forindustrials. Recent events in Spain highlight the need forinvestment in infrastructure to support energy transition.Cables best way to play; raise PRY & NKT PTs on enhancedEPS visibility. Avoid wind (VWS) and risk of MV oversupply(SIE/ABB). European Capital GoodsGeorge Featherstone, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 8585george.featherstone@barclays.comBarclays, UK Vlad Sergievskii+44 (0)20 7116 1117vlad.sergievskii@barclays.comBarclays, UK Key focus areas and implications for industrials: Xin Wang+44 (0)20 7773 1380xin.wang@barclays.comBarclays, UK 1. Grid resilience amidst energy transition is in clear focus following recent blackouts,likely supportive of capex in a key end market for industrials:Grid capex has been elevatedin recent years, driven by expansions and upgrades to ageing infrastructure in developedmarkets, yieldingoftendouble-digit end market growth for industrials with exposure. Therecent Iberian blackouts (read more on this from our Utilities colleagues here) likely underpinboth positive investor sentiment towards, and continued strength in, demand for gridinfrastructure / energy transition-related industrial products and systems. Timothy Lee, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6879timothy.lee@barclays.comBarclays, UK Vaspaan Yazdi Avari+91 (0)22 6175 2382vaspaany.avari@barclays.comBarclays, UK 2. Cables manufacturers NKT & PRYofferbest exposure to this theme, in our view; we raiseour PTs on both on enhanced earnings visibility:We advocate selective exposure to thistheme and favour cable manufacturers PRY/NKT (OW) for strong earnings torque and enhancedvisibility from direct exposure to grid hardening in both transmission and distribution. Therecent blackouts serve to increase our confidence that grid infrastructure capex spend is set toincrease, thus warranting higher multiples and earnings estimates for our OW cables names thatin turn drive our price targets higher for NKT: to DKK 686 (from DKK 597) and Prysmian: EUR 82(from EUR 72). Full details on estimates / multiples changes this below. 3. Avoid wind energy (VWS) and medium voltage equipment (ABB/SIE):Although there arelikely to be clear opportunities for MV systems providers in distribution related to equipmentupgrades and 'smart grids' to address issues such as load balancing, we are wary of the rapidsupply expansion expected to hit the MV market in the next two years and the risk this poses tocurrent record profitability levels (see our report: Supply tsunami meets uncertain demand =margins vulnerable) for ABB and Siemens (UW). Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9.Completed: 26-May-25, 16:17 GMTReleased: 27-May-25, 04:00 GMTRestricted - External We recommend avoiding direct exposure to wind energy generation and reiterate our UW ratingon Vestas and concerns on Nordex (EW) (see our sector note: The sunset of Western wind); incontrast to high-level market perceptions, our analysis indicates that Euro wind OEMs could befacing declining volumes in their new equipment businesses (less subsidy support, economics,saturation, China competition) as utilities capexshiftsaway from renewables to grid/networks. We retain our EW ratings for Siemens Energy (attractive grid / gas exposureoffsetby windexposure / valuation) and Schneider Electric (grid/data center exposure attractive butoffsetbyMV supply risk noted above). With grid capex set to double by 2030, we favour exposure to cables:A well establishedtrend over the past several years has been increased investment into expanding andstrengthening the grid to improve reliability as the world electrifies and power generation mixshiftstowards renewables. A combination of ageing infrastructure, a need to digitalise systemsto support more dynamic flows of electricity and removing a clear hurdle to renewablegeneration buildout is set to yield an acceleration in grid infrastructure investment. TheInternational Energy Agency (IEA) has framed grid capex requirements in 3 scenarios: 1) StatedPolicies Scenario (STEPS) - outlook based on latest policies; 2) Announced Pledges Scenario(APS) - assumes all national energy and climate targets made by governments are met in fulland on time; and 3) Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 scenario to limit global warming to 1.5degrees Celsius.Bottom line: By 2030