Sasol (SASOL)：进一步财务自律，专注运营改进 - 买入2028年债券

Restricted - External Stella Cridge+44 (0) 20 3134 9618stella.cridge@barclays.comBarclays, UK FIGURE 1. Sasol bonds have come back in from the wides of AprilFIGURE 2. ...but remain at a significant premium to peers and theSouth Africa sovereign050100150200250300350400450Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25z-spreadSASOL 26 vs sovSASOL 28 vs sovSASOL 29 vs sovSASOL 31 vs sovSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchleases) from $4bn prior and announcing that deleveraging will be prioritised over all other usesof capital. We believe these steps can yield benefits over time amid a challenging macrobackdrop.Sasol bonds have tightened from the April wides, but remain at a significant premium to theSouth Africa sovereign (Figure 2). They alsooffera 115bp premium in the 2029 segment (Figure3) over close peer Sibanye, whose bonds have held up better despite being exposed to autotariffsimposed by the US (which could weigh on PGM demand). This contrasts with tighterspreads in the 2026s (c20bp). We believe that the market is pricing in many negatives for Sasol(weak cash flow, rising leverage, ongoing reliance on coal in the long-term in the SA business),but none of the positives (eg, margin and cost improvement over time). Also, we believe thecash inflow from the settlement with Transnet (of ZAR4.3bn or c$235mn by end-June) raises thepossibility of Sasol settling the $500mn balance on the 2026 bonds out of own cash. That said,we think the company may monitor bond markets for issuance opportunities, particularly as itdemonstrates progress on its strategic goals (which could improve borrowing rates), given it hasdrawn down sizeable portions of its term loan and RCF already, see Sasol: H1 25 results: Focuson operational, financial discipline, 28 February 2025).We turn more constructive on Sasol at wider levels and recommend investors add the 2028s,which we see as the most attractive bond on the curve,offeringc270bp over SOAF (longer-dated maturitiesofferonly a little more premium at c310-325bp). We see this bond as likely tobenefit from Sasol addressing near-term maturities (the unrestricted cash balance was $1.8bnat December 2024), while the longer-end of the curve will likely remain heavy given macroweakness and Sasol's probable long-term reliance on coal (which is a negative for environment-sensitive investors). Also, the 2028s look more attractive than the 2026s which have tightened toc135bp over the sovereign amid news of the cash inflow from Transnet. Ratings risk will likelyremain an overhang, but bonds are already pricing in a lower rating (see Figure 4). Overall, webelieve our current Market Weight rating is appropriate given these considerations.2 Sasol CMD 2025: Further financial discipline, focus onoperational improvements and cost managementSasol tightens financial discipline amid volatile macro backdrop:The standout financialannouncement at Sasol's 2025 Capital Markets day was the decision to lower the threshold fordividend payouts to less than $3bn of net debt (prior to leases) from $4bn prior (net debt was$4.3bn at December 2024, ex-leases). According to the CFO, this would equate to net leverage of1.0-1.5x through the cycle, and the company will prioritise debt repayment over all other uses ofcapital, and will only consider a dividend when it has deleveraged sustainably. We believe thissends a strong signal of a commitment to deploy excess cash flow to debt reduction in order tostrengthen the balance sheet over time.Target to boost profitability at International Chemicals: The second most important itemwas the focus on boosting profitability in the International Chemicals segment (Eurasia/USA).Management acknowledged that the business has not been performing to its full potential –EBITDA margins have been lower then peers (c6% vs peer average of 13%), and assets havebeen facing issues with reliability and high overhead costs andinefficiencies.The presentationbuilt further on the optimisation strategy that was already outlined in the H1 25 results inFebruary (see Sasol: H1 25 results: Focus on operational, financial discipline, 28 February 2025).Sasol willshiftto a value (rather than volume) driven approach in terms of productofferingandmargins. Also, the team is reviewing the asset footprint and moving forward with previouslyannounced closures of underperforming businesses (in Italy, Germany and the US). Finally,there will a focus on costs, to reduce fixed costs by 15-20% by FY 28 vs FY 24.Management is targetting $350-400mn pa of group EBITDA improvement in InternationalChemicals by FY 28 (to a total of $750-850mn vs $288mn in FY 24), and a >15% EBITDA marginthrough the cycle (Figure 5). Management aims for 70% of the EBITDA improvement to comefrom internal measures, with 30% expected from the macro environment. This plan is at thecore of Sasol'seffortsto boost group EBITDA to cZAR68bn (the middle of the targetted range) byFY 28 from ZAR60bn in FY 24 (Figure 6). Improvements in International Chemicals, if a