5月HICP初值回顾

WeightMar 25Apr 251000.002.182.17193.262.932.97150.602.582.4342.664.194.8693.99-0.98-3.56712.772.432.75256.270.620.57456.503.453.98 %y/yMay 25FcstAct lessfcstMar 251.921.97-0.052.183.253.050.200.572.932.620.310.394.404.56-0.160.18-3.57-3.53-0.04-0.102.292.42-0.131.710.630.600.030.163.243.44-0.211.56Restricted - External contr. to %y/y headlineApr 25May 25FcstAct lessfcst2.171.921.97-0.050.570.630.590.040.440.390.050.190.19-0.01-0.35-0.34-0.340.001.951.631.72-0.090.160.150.011.471.57-0.09Balduin Bippus+44 (0) 20 7773 4277balduin.bippus@barclays.comBarclays, UKMark Cus Babic+1 212 526 1870mark.cusbabic@barclays.comBCI, US 2This is based on our own method of seasonal adjustment. Using the ECB's seasonal adjustment, services momentumdeclined 10.8pp to -2.0% m/m SAAR.3Using the ECB's seasonal adjustment, core goods momentum increased 0.9pp to 0.7% m/m SAAR.Belgian airfares) eased -3.0pp to 2.4% m/m SAAR (-0.3pp to 3.9% m/m SAAR in 3mma terms).Overall services momentum, which includes the volatile and holiday-relatedcomponents, dropped to -2.7% m/m SAAR from 9.6% m/m SAAR in April (-1.7pp to 3.2% m/mSAAR in 3mma terms)2. At the same time, core goods inflation was unchanged at 0.6% y/y forthe fourth consecutive month, though with sequential momentum edging up 0.4pp to 1.0%m/m SAAR (+0.1pp to 0.7% m/m SAAR in 3mma terms)3.Looking at the non-core components, energy remained in deep deflation (unchanged at-3.6% y/y, -1.2% m/m NSA), with past declines in oil prices still being transmitted to thepump. In contrast, food, alcohol and tobacco (FAT) inflation continued to build momentum(+0.3pp from Apr to 3.3% y/y) due to processed food (including alcohol and tobacco), thoughunprocessed food was relativelysoft.May headline and core were 5bp and 13bp below our forecasts.This slight downsidesurprise was entirely due to services inflation which decelerated more than we had expected.At the headline level, this downside surprise was only partlyoffsetby a beat of processedfood inflation. Meanwhile, unprocessed food, alcohol and tobacco, as well as energy and coregoods inflation developed broadly as we had expected. Compared to our tracking, headlineand core were also slightlysofter(4bp and 9bp), primarily due to a downside surprise in theNetherlands.Softnesswas geographically broad based, with headline HICP inflation easing by 0.3pp inFrance and Spain (to 0.6% y/y and 1.9% y/y) and 0.1pp in Germany and Italy (to 2.1% y/y and1.9% y/y). Across countries, this was driven by core inflation which decelerated in Germany,France and Italy (-0.4pp to 2.7% y/y, -0.4pp to 1.5% y/y and -0.3pp to 1.9% y/y) and, based ondata in the national CPI, likely also in Spain. Beyond the big-four countries, inflationcontinued to be volatile and was notablysoftin the Netherlands (headline -1.1pp to 3.0% y/y,core -1.8pp to 2.4% y/y), while inflation in the other smaller countries on aggregate easedroughly as expected.Overall, this print confirmed that April was a bump and that the disinflation processremains on track.Services inflation surprised to the downside with early indicatorssuggesting that thesoftnessin underlying services components, which we had observed inApril, carried into May. Since other categories developed broadly as expected, this increasesour confidence in our inflation outlook and we continue to expect to see a sustainedundershoot of headline inflation throughout our forecast horizon.2 •••••• Source: Eurostat, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. Core goods momentum remains broadly stable...-1012345678910May-22May-23%m/m, SAARCore goods momentumBarclays SAECB SASource: ECB, Haver Analytics, Barclays Research3 June 2025 Services excluding our estimate of EA airfares (based on Germany and Belgium) andexcluding German package holidaysSource: Eurostat, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. EA flash May HICP: high-level breakdown of component % m/m, NSA growth rates%m/m, NSAcontr. to %m/m, NSA headlineMay 25FcstAct lessfcstMar 25Apr 25May 25FcstAct lessfcst-0.030.02-0.050.610.57-0.030.02-0.050.470.270.200.060.060.090.050.040.560.260.300.030.030.090.040.050.120.27-0.150.020.040.010.01-0.01-1.21-1.17-0.04-0.14-0.22-0.11-0.110.00-0.010.12-0.120.690.720.000.08-0.080.110.080.030.480.100.030.020.01-0.070.13-0.200.200.62-0.030.06-0.09contr. to %y/y headline%m/m, NSAApr 25May25FcstActlessfcstMar25Apr 25May25FcstActlessfcst2.182.171.921.97-0.050.610.57-0.030.02-0.050.640.590.570.570.000.380.460.150.18-0.030.170.180.120.15-0.030.190.66-0.150.00-0.150.330.300.290.011.550.400.08-0.010.090.260.230.200.020.690.62-0.09-0.220.130.200.240.170.20-0.030.511.79-0.85-0.24-0.610.570.560.520.55-0.030.580.380.020.10-0.084 Light blue bars represent the months in which Easter Sunday took place in eachyear.Source: StLaNrw, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchWeightMar 25Apr 25Headline1000.000.610.57Food, alcohol, and tobacco193.260.290.33Processed food inc. alc., tob.150.600.220.18Unprocessed food42.660.510.88Energy93.99-1.40-2.34Core712.770.971.02Core goods256.271