荷兰政治：自由党退出联盟导致政府倒台

Economics & RatesEurozone Government falls as Freedom party quits coalition ◆Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right Freedom party,announced that hisparty would quit the governing coalition Chantana SamEconomist, France and SwitzerlandHSBC Continental Europechantana.sam@hsbc.fr+33 1 40 70 77 95 ◆This decisioncouldtriggera new electionthat is likely to leadto anotherstalemate,according to latest polls Chris AttfieldEuropean Rates StrategistHSBC Bank plcchristopher.attfield@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 2133 ◆Rates market reaction muted: 2023's snap election suggestslimited impact Return of political instability On 3 June, Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (PVV), announcedthat his party will quit the governing coalition, due to disagreementsconcerning theasylum policy. This should mark the end of the current government, led by PrimeMinister Dick Schoof since July 2024.The governing coalition had88 seats out of150 in theparliament and will lose its majority without the 37 deputies of the PVV. Unless a new coalition can be formed, which would be difficult,electionsare likely tobe held. The previous elections were held in November 2023 and a coalitionagreement was only finalised in May 2024.Fresh elections appearunlikely to solvethepolitical stalemate. The latest polls suggest that voting intentions are dominatedby three distinct political forces: the centre-left led by the Green Left and Labouralliance (GL-PvdA), the centre-right led by VVD,and the far-right led by PVV. If analliancebetween VVD and PVV cannot be renewed, it would raise the chances of agrandcoalition including both centre-left and centre-right parties. Rates implications In general, politics is not a major driver in core eurozone bond spreads, unless fiscalconcerns surface. This has its limits in the case ofEuroscepticsentiment which maygive rise to market concerns about systemic risk, as seen in the French presidentialelection of 2017. The more recent French election did impact OAT spreads versusBunds in a durable way, but we hesitate to draw parallels to the Dutchsituation giventhe very different fiscal situation. At time of writing, the market reaction has been contained, with the 10-yearbenchmark spread to Bunds 1bp wider at 21bp. We would expect limited follow-through at present–although it is true that in the current climate markets may bemore sensitive to political news.Euroscepticism can be a factor as Francehasshown; however,the example of 2023 suggests that–even with a Euroscepticcandidategarnering significant support–the market reaction was limited. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Continental Europe This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Return to political gridlock Chantana SamEconomist, France andSwitzerlandHSBC Continental Europechantana.sam@hsbc.fr+33 1 40 70 77 95 On 3 June, Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (PVV), announced that his partywill quit the governing coalition, due to disagreementsconcerning theasylum policy. Thegoverning coalition is composed of PVV, the populist Farmer-Citizens Movement (BBB), thecentrist New Social Contract (NSC),and the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy(VVD).Pulling out the 37 deputies of PVV would leave only 51 for the governing coalition,wellshort of the majority in the 150-seatparliament(chart 1).It would therefore lead to the fall of thegovernment led by Prime Minister Dick Schoof since July 2024. The government collapse is set to trigger new legislative elections. Based on the latest polls,these new elections are likely to lead to a new political stalemate. Indeed, voting intentions areclearlydominatedbythreedistinct forces: the centre-left led by theGreen Left and Labouralliance(GL-PvdA), the centre-right led by VVD,and the far-right led by PVV.Two members ofthe current governing coalition, the BBB and the NSC, have lost support since the previouselections held in November 2023. If an alliance between VVD and PVV cannot be renewed, itwould raise the chances of a great coalition including bothcentre-left and centre-right parties. The return of political instability in Netherlands is not good news for Europe, at a time ofelevated uncertainty due to geopolitics andtheUS tariff policy. Indeed, it could slow the decision process at the EU level and limit new initiatives to finance defencespending,for example.That said, therecent signs of a stronger France-Germanrelationshipand therising political influence of Italy at the EU level couldmitigatethese concerns. Rates market implications Chris AttfieldEuropean RatesStrategistHSBC Bank plcchristopher.attfield@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 2133 Dutch government bonds (DSLs) have not historically been sensitive to political developments.Given the recent volatility