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DisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized MobilityandTransportConnectivitySeries FuelingAfrica’sFlight: Disclosure ATechno-EconomicAssessmentofSustainableAviationFuelsinAfrica FuelingAfrica’sFlight: ATechno-EconomicAssessmentofSustainableAviationFuelsinAfrica MegersaAbate,RobertMalina,GoncaSeber,CharlesE.Schlumberger ©2025TheWorldBank 1818HStreetNW,Washington,D.C.,20433,USATelephone:+1-202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org Somerightsreserved. ThisworkisaproductoftheWorldBank.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesin theinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,links/footnotes, andotherinformationshowninthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.ThecitationofworksauthoredbyothersdoesnotmeantheWorldBankendorsestheviewsexpressedbythoseauthorsorthecontentoftheirworks. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesoftheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY-NC3.0IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo/deed.en.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingfornoncommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions: Attribution Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:“WorldBank.2025.FuelingAfrica’sFlight: ATechno-EconomicAssessmentofSustainableAviationFuelsinAfrica.©WorldBank.” Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA; fax:202-522-2625;email:pubrights@worldbank.org. TableofContents ListofFiguresvii ListofTablesx Acknowledgmentsxii Abbreviationsxiii ExecutiveSummaryxv Contextxv CountryInsightsxvi ConclusionandRecommendationsxxiv Referencesxxvii 01.Introduction1 TheSAFOpportunityandChallenge2 ScopeofAnalysis6 References10 02.KenyaDeepDive11 Overview12 DescriptionofCountryCase13 ConversionTechnologyandFeedstocks16 Methodology17 Results24 ConclusionandRecommendations37 Annex2AKeyAssumptionsandDataforTechno-EconomicAnalysisofKenya39 References45 03.EthiopiaDeepDive48 Overview49 DescriptionofCountryCase50 FeedstocksandConversionTechnology53 Techno-EconomicModelandResults58 ConclusionandRecommendations72 Annex3AKeyAssumptionsandDataforTechno-EconomicAnalysisofEthiopia76 References86 04.NigeriaDeepDive88 Overview89 DescriptionofCountryCase90 ConversionTechnologyandFeedstockPotential92 Techno-EconomicModelandResults94 ConclusionsandRecommendations99 InitiativesbyMultilateralDevelopmentBanks102 Annex4AKeyAssumptionsandDataforTechno-EconomicAnalysisofNigeria103 References106 05.SouthAfricaDeepDive108 Overview109 DescriptionofCountryCase110 FeedstockPotentialandPlantDesign113 Techno-EconomicModelandResults116 ConclusionandRecommendations124 Annex5A.KeyAssumptionsandDataforTechno-EconomicAnalysisofSouthAfrica126 References128 06.ConclusionandRecommendations131 Short-TermRecommendations(OnetoThreeYears)133 Medium-TermRecommendations(ThreetoSevenYears)133 Long-TermRecommendations(MoreThanSevenYears)134 AppendixASustainableAviationFuelPathways,MarketTrends,and RegionalOpportunities135 ImageCredits141 ListofFigures FigureES.1ProjectedreductionsingreenhousegasemissionsinfourAfricancountries perunitofSAFusedxx FigureES.2RiskandgreenpremiumsonSAFinKenya,Ethiopia,andSouthAfricaxxii FigureES.3ImpactofpolicyscenariosontheminimumsellingpriceinKenyaofSAF producedusingcastoroilxxiv Figure1.1Installedandannouncedcapacity3 Figure1.2SAFminimumsellingpriceofselectedfeedstocksatvariousdiscount rate/interestratecombinations5 Figure1.3TechnologyandfeedstocksconsideredinEthiopia,Kenya,NigeriaandSouth8 Figure2.1SharesofpetroleumdemandinKenya,byfuelcategory,202215 Figure2.2SimplifiedprocessflowdiagramofproductionofSAFusingthehydrotreated estersandfattyacids(HEFA)fuelproductionpathway17 Figure2.3Fuelproductsthatcouldbeproducedfrommaximumdistillateandmaximum jetscenarios18 Figure2.4Sharesofjetanddieselfueldemandthatahydrotreatedestersandfattyacids (HEFA)facilitycouldmeet19 Figure2.5Assumptionsandcoststructureforestimationoffixedcapitalinvestment inKenya20 Figure2.6MinimumsellingpricesformaximumdistillateandmaximumjetproductioninKenyausingtheusedcookingoilhydrotreatedestersandfattyacids(HEFA) pathway,byfacilitysize(2,000,4,000and6,500barrelsperday)25 Figure2.7MinimumsellingpricesinKenyaformaximumdistillateandmaximumjetproductionusingthecastoroil/hydrotreatedestersandfattyacidspathway (HEFA),byfacilitysize(2,000,4,000and