黑芝麻智能(02533 HK)公司报告：打破高通在CDC芯片市场的垄断

SeethelastpagefordisclaimerEquity ResearchEquity Research Report证券研究报告Company ReportMachinery SectorBlack Sesame (02533 HK)[Table_Title]Company Report:Black Sesame (02533 HK)公司报告：黑芝麻智能(02533 HK)[Table_Summary]Initiate coverage of Black Sesame Technology (“Black Sesame” or the“Company”) with"Buy"andaTPofHK$23.61.Black Sesame, as one of theleading domestic assisted driving SoC chipset designers in China,is in theprocess of entrenching itself within the OEM ecosystem through attaining vehicledesignations foritsC1200 series chipsets, and beginning the production processforitsnext generation A2000 chipsets. As a result, we believe that the Company’srevenue prospects are excellent. We forecast 2025-2027 revenue atRMB736.4mn/ RMB1,611.2 mn/ RMB2,035.5 mnrespectively, representing YoY growth of55.3%/118.8%/26.3%. We base our target price on a 2026 EV/Sales ratio of8.0x, with reference tocomparable peers.Currently,the Company is facing high costs related to the research ofsemiconductors, but also has excellent operating leverage.Revenue growthis contingent on three business developments:1)the success of the C1200series in expanding into the integrated cockpit and ADAS market in the short term;2)the ability to quickly mass produce and obtain design wins for the 125-1000TOPS A2000 series, allowing for revenue growth in the medium term;and3)theability for the Company to continue to improveitsprocess to 5-3 nm foritsnextgeneration SoCs expected to be mass produced in 2028, allowing for sustainedrevenue.We believe that business developments 1) and 2) are very likelygivenitshigh product quality and the strong relationships with customers.Near term, we project the C1200 series to gain significant market share inthe sizable cockpit domain controller (“CDC”) market due to it being one ofthe only domestic alternatives to Qualcomm’sSA8775p.We project themarket to expand to between RMB5.4 bn-RMB11.0 bn by 2026, with salesvolume growing by 80% in 2025.Black Sesame offers itself as a geopoliticallysafe alternative to Qualcomm, and is likely to significantly gain in market share ifitpriceits C1200 series chip correctly with regards to the relative performancedifference.Forthe medium term, if the Company is able to gain significantnumbers of vehicle model designations foritsA2000 seriesover the courseof 2025, it would allowfor a significant gain involume,ASP, and GMfor theyear of 2026.We believe that thisis likelybecause: 1)the Company currently is incontact with various OEMs to achieve vehicle designations; 2) the Company’sA2000 series has high raw INT8 TOPS compared to its domestic competitors;and3)most OEMs prefer to use the self-driving algorithm of their choice, with thisoption being preferable to Horizon’s SoC + algorithm solution, which locks theassisted driving algorithm provider as Horizon.Catalysts for investment:1)announcement of design wins for the A2000chipset;2)figures proving the success of the C1200 series as released by theCompany.Risks:1)OEM consolidation allowing for in houseADAS SoCs;2)trade frictionpreventingthe Company from accessing the services of offshore EDA andfabrication companies;3)delays in the production of latest chipsets.[Table_Profit]Year EndTurnoverNet ProfitEPSEPS年结收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率12/31(RMB m)(RMB m)(RMB)(△%)2023A312(4,855)(68.382)n.a.2024A4743131.189n.a.2025F736(1,844)(2.966)(349.5)2026F1,611(1,572)(2.528)n.a.2027F2,036(1,430)(2.300)n.a.[Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m)总股数(m)630.4Major shareholder大股东Market cap. (HK$ m)市值(HK$ m)11,397.6Free float(%)自由流通比率(%)3 month average vol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000)13,982.152 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低(HK$)43.850 / 14.500FY25 Est. NAV (HK$) FY25每股估值（港元）Source:the Company, Guotai Junan International. TABLE OF CONTENTSInvestment Summary....................................................................................................................................... 31. Company Operational Analysis .................................................................................................................. 41.1 Corporate History ......................................................................................................................................... 41.2 Management ................................................................................................................................................ 51.3 Product Offerings ......................................................................................................................................... 51.4 Continued Collaboration With Customers Suppliers and Partners Provides a Moat .................................. 62. Automobile SoC Chipset Industry: Fast Growing Market with Untapped Domestic Firm ExpansionOpportunities.................................................................................................................................................... 82.1 Growth Drivers .......................................................................................