蒙古的财政乘数（英）

* I would like to thank Angana Banerji (mission chief for Mongolia) for overall guidance and feedback. I would also like toexpress sincere gratitude to Khulan Buyankhishig and Gerelmaa Baatarchuluun (IMF Resident Representative Office inMongolia) for invaluable assistance throughout this research. Tahsin Saadi Sedik, Anar Zorigtbaatar, as well as Jose Luis DiazSanchez and Batmunkh Undral (World Bank office in Mongolia) and Martin Fukac (CCAMTAC) provided helpful comments andsuggestions. Judee Yanzon provided excellent production assistance. The usual disclaimer applies.IMF Working PaperAsia and Pacific DepartmentFiscal Multipliers in MongoliaPrepared by Tigran PoghosyanAuthorized for distribution by Thomas HelblingMay 2025IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.ABSTRACT:Fiscal policy plays an important macroeconomic role in Mongolia. On the one hand, fiscalexpansion is seen as a measure to boost aggregate demand. On the other hand, import leakages mitigate theimpact of fiscal expansion on growth. Applying a structural vector autoregressive model, this paper finds thatMongolia’s total spending and revenue multipliers are below 1, peaking at 0.3 and -0.1, respectively. The lowerthan 1 multiplier can be explained by import leakages in Mongolia. Capital spending multiplier peaks at 0.6,exceeds and remains more persistent than the current spending multiplier, suggesting that public investment ismore efficient in boosting growth than current spending. Tax revenue and non-tax revenue multipliers peakat -0.1 and -0.2, respectively, and are short-lived. Revenue multipliers are broadly comparable in size, but theirassessment is challenging due to lack of sizeable tax policy measures in Mongolia.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Poghosyan, T. “Fiscal Multipliers in Mongolia.” IMF Working Paper 25/101.E31, J31Fiscal Multipliers;Structural VAR;MongoliaTPoghosyan@imf.org JEL Classification Numbers:Keywords:Author’s E-Mail Address: Fiscal Multipliers in MongoliaPrepared by Tigran Poghosyan INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDContentsI. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 3II. Literature Review ............................................................................................................................................ 3III. Methodology ................................................................................................................................................... 5IV. Data ................................................................................................................................................................. 7V. Estimation Results ......................................................................................................................................... 9A.Aggregate Fiscal Variables ...................................................................................................................... 9B.Disaggregated Fiscal Variables ............................................................................................................. 11VI. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................. 13References ......................................................................................................................................................... 14FIGURESFigure 1. Government Spending, Revenue, and GDP Growth (real, % y-o-y)...................................................... 7Figure 2. Evolution of Government Spending and Revenue................................................................................. 8Figure 3. Baseline Spending and Revenue Multipliers ....................................................................................... 10Figure 4. Spending and Revenue Multipliers, Controlling for IMF Programs, Economic Crises, andParliamentary Elections ...................................................................................................................................... 10Figure 5. Spending and Revenue Multipliers for Non-Mining GDP..................................................................... 11Figure 6. Disaggregated Spending Multipliers .................................................................................................... 12Figure 7. Disaggregated Revenue Multipliers ..................................................................................................... 12 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDI.IntroductionFiscal policy, particularly the use of government spending and taxation to influence economic activity, plays acrucial r