基于QPM的发展中国家天气冲击与货币政策分析（英）

*The paper reflects work conducted by ICDMM staffas part of theirMacroframeworksTechnical Assistancepracticewith central banks. Preliminary results documented in this paper were presented at theJanuary 2025“Peer-to-Peer(P2P) Event on Climate Change Modeling for Monetary Policymaking” jointly organized by the IMF andtheBank ofUganda.The authors are grateful to ICD colleagues and management for their continuous feedback, to P2Pparticipants, and toAndrew Berg, Martin Fukac, Shalva Mkhatrishvili,Gregor Schwerhoff,andJianping Zhoufortheirdetailedcomments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors anddo not necessarily represent theviews of the IMF, its Executive Board,orIMF management.IMF Working PaperInstitute for Capacity DevelopmentQPM-Based Analysis of Weather Shocks and Monetary Policyin Developing CountriesPrepared byValeriu NalbanandLuis-Felipe ZannaAuthorized for distribution by Natan EpsteinMay 2025IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.ABSTRACT:Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challengesfor monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview ofweather-relevant analytical exercises that help to understand the propagation channels of these shocks, thepolicy trade-offs they imply, and the ensuing implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The exerciseshighlight the important role of economic characteristics and frictions, such as the weight of food expenditures inthe consumption basket, the GDP share of the agriculture sector, the degree of imports substituting for thedamaged domesticagricultural supply, the extent of inflation expectations’ anchoring and central bank credibility,and the specific characteristics of the monetary policy framework, including the degree of exchange rate flexibilityand the definition of the price stability objective. Overall, the extent of these characteristics and frictions indeveloping countries render them more vulnerable and constitute bigger challenges in monetary policy conductE32, E37, E47, E52, Q11, Q54Monetary Policy;Weather Shocks;Quarterly Projection Model;TransmissionMechanism;Developing Countriesvnalban@imf.org; fzanna@imf.org relative to developed economies.JEL Classification Numbers:Authors’E-Mail Addresses: Keywords: QPM-Based Analysis of WeatherShocks and Monetary PolicyinDeveloping CountriesPreparedbyValeriu NalbanandLuis-Felipe Zanna11The paper reflects work conducted by ICDMM staff as part of their Macroframeworks Technical Assistance practicewith centralbanks. Preliminary results documented in this paper were presented at the January 2025 “Peer-to-Peer(P2P) Event on Climate Change Modeling for Monetary Policymaking” jointly organized by the IMF and the Bank ofUganda. The authors are grateful to ICD colleagues and management for their continuous feedback, to P2Pparticipants, and toAndrew Berg, Martin Fukac, Shalva Mkhatrishvili,Gregor Schwerhoff, andJianping Zhoufortheir detailedcomments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Contents1.Introduction............................................................................................................................................52.A Conceptual Framework and Overview of Key Results...................................................................93.Model Structure...................................................................................................................................11Box 1. The Canonical QPM..........................................................................................................................113.1.Demand............................................................................................................................................133.2.Supply...............................................................................................................................................143.3.The exchange rate regime and monetary policy...............................................................................163.4.Calibration.........................................................................................................................................184.Model Results......................................................................................................................................194.1.Weather shocks are inherently supply-side......................................................................................194.2.The role of the food weight in the CPI basket............................................................................