6月资金无虞，坚定看好CD

证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com相关报告1.《高频｜二手房销售动能减弱，商品价格全线下行》2025-05-312.《利率|个税走高与非税收入走低，哪个更真实？》2025-05-303.《利率|国债买卖，何时重启？》2025-05-29 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准16月资金无虞，坚定看好CD.................................................................................................................52周度资金存单跟踪和关键点提示.........................................................................................................113央行：下周有16026亿元逆回购到期.................................................................................................124政府债：下周政府债净缴款下降至782亿元.....................................................................................135票据：月末票据利率整体上行.............................................................................................................166汇率：统计期贬值，人民币即期汇率录得7.20.................................................................................167市场资金供需：国有行融出抬升，非银提高杠杆.............................................................................178CD：国有行负债端压力增强，存单收益率上行...............................................................................218.1一级发行市场：本周国有行负债端压力增强，平均发行利率抬升............................................218.2二级交易市场：存单收益率上行至1.70%以上，机构配置诉求升温........................................249风险提示：.............................................................................................................................................25图1.年初至今资金中枢走势.........................................................................................................................5图2. 5月Shibor 3M和IRS_Repo_1Y走势................................................................................................5图3. 5月资金面复盘.......................................................................................................................................6图4. 5月中下旬央行逆回购净投放呈现明显呵护状态...............................................................................7图5. 5月央行整体净投放加量明显...............................................................................................................7图6. 5月存单买盘...........................................................................................................................................7图7.资金价格和7天逆回购利差的月度季节性走势.................................................................................8图8.资金分层的月度季节性走势.................................................................................................................8图9. 6月资金价格和7天逆回购利差的日度走势.......................................................................................8图10. 6月资金分层的季节性走势.................................................................................................................8图11.国有行融出的季节性情况...................................................................................................................9图12.货基融出的季节性情况.......................................................................................................................9图13. 6月信贷全年占比.................................................................................................................................9图14. 6月缴税的历史季节性规律.................................................................................................................9图15. 6月存单到期量情况.............................................................................................................................9图16. 5月下旬国有行存单净融资抬升但幅度有限.....................................................................................9内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图17.存单买盘的季节性规律.....................................................................................................................10图18.存单价格的季节性走势.....................................................................................................................10图19.一周资金和存单关键点跟踪.............................................................................................................11图20.下周资金扰动因素.............................................................................................................................12图21.央行周度操作和资金价格走势.........................................................................................................13图22.逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性.............................................................................................................13图23.统计期短期资金到期情况.................................................................................................................13图24.统计期或有中长期资金到期情况.....................................................................................................13图25.政府债净融资和缴款情况.................................................................................................................14图26.政府债净融资进度.............................................................................................................................14图27.结构视角政府债净融资量和进度情况.........................................................................................