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AWorldBankGroupReport APRIL2025 CommodityMarketsOutlook Apr Oct AWorldBankGroupReport APRIL2025 CommodityMarketsOutlook ©2025InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSomerightsreserved. ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,links/footnotesandotherinformationshowninthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptance ofsuchboundaries.ThecitationofworksauthoredbyothersdoesnotmeantheWorldBankendorsestheviewsexpressedbythoseauthorsorthecontentoftheirworks. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions: Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:WorldBank.2025.CommodityMarketsOutlook,April2025.Washington,DC:WorldBank.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGO Translations—Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation. Adaptations—Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank. Third-partycontent—TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-party-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtoreuseacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatreuseandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages. AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. ThecutoffdateforthedatausedinthisreportwasApril16,2025. TableofContents Acknowledgmentsv ExecutiveSummary1 CommodityMarketDevelopmentsandOutlook13 Energy15 Agriculture25 Fertilizers32 MetalsandMinerals35 PreciousMetals38 SpecialFocusPost-PandemicCommodityCycles:ANewEra?41 Figures 1Stateofcommoditymarkets2 2Tradetensionsandcommoditymarkets3 3Outlook5 4Riskstocommoditypricesandimplicationsofthecommoditypriceforecasts7 5Oilmarket:Globalpriceandmarketdevelopments15 6Oilmarket:Demandandsupplydevelopments17 7Oilmarket:Outlookandrisks18 8Naturalgasmarkets:Fundamentals20 9Naturalgasmarkets:Risks21 10Coalmarket23 11Agriculturalprices26 12Supplyconditionsforgrainsandedibleoils27 13Riskstoagriculturepriceprojections29 14Foodpriceinflationandfoodinsecurity30 15Beveragemarkets31 16Agriculturalrawmaterialsmarkets32 17Fertilizermarkets33 18Metalsandmineralsmarkets36 19Criticalmineralsmarkets38 20Preciousmetalsmarkets39 SF.1Commoditymarketdynamics:Prices,volatility,andcyclicalbehavior44 SF.2Commoditypricecyclesandturningpoints47 SF.3Mainfeaturesofcommoditycycles50 SF.4Cyclescharacteristicsacrosscommoditygroups51 iii FiguresSF.5Comovementsofcommoditycycles52 SF.6Evolutionofcommoditycycles55 Table1WorldBankCommodityPriceForecasts11 DiagramSF.1Cycleterminologyandconcepts:Stylizedexampleofcommoditypricecycles46 iv Acknowledgments ThisWorldBankGroupReportisaproductoftheProspectsGroupintheDevelopmentEconomicsVicePresidency.CarlosArtetamanagedthereportunderthegeneralguidanceofAyhanKose. Manypeoplecontributedtothereport.CarlosArtetaandPhilKenworthyprovidedoverallcon-tentandeditorialreview.SectionauthorsincludedPaoloAgnolucci(oil,naturalgas,andcoal),JohnBaffes(fertilizers,beverages,andagriculturalrawmaterials),PhilKenworthy(executivesummary),JeetendraKhadan(metalsandcriticalminerals),andDawitMekonnen(food).GuillermoVerduzco-Bustosprovidedanalyticalsupportforgeneratingscenarios.TheSpecialFocuson“Post-PandemicCommodityCycles:ANewEra?”waspreparedbyMircoBalatti. KaltrinaTemajcoordinateddataanal