美国航空（AAL）：围绕高端化推进制定战略

1.961.96 2025E2026E54,715.058,226.71.001.7554,583.857,833.10.952.05 2027E61,514.12.3060,930.52.59 Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.comKyle Wenclawiak * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7671 | kwenclawiak@jefferies.com The Long View: American AirlinesInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferAAL's strategy concentrates on its short-haul network, comprising 75% ofASMs, with focus on the medium & small sized markets that can be uniquelyserved by its regional fleet and its pilot scope clause. These advantagedmarkets offer connectivity to AAL's domestic Sun Belt hubs and enable theinternational network. This is a stark bifurcation from network peer strategiesfocused on large, coastal hubs. Ongoing corporate share recapture, lowercapacity and capex, and a new CC deal mean AAL could see surprise in adifficult industry backdrop related to the macro.Base Case,$11, -4%•2026 revenues increase 6% y-o-y on ASMs up3% and TRASMs up ~3% with easier compsafter a soft 2025 macro.•2026 CASM-ex up 3.2% y-o-y on LSD capacitygrowth.•2026 Adj. EBITDAR of $6.3BB for 11% marginsvs target of 15-18%.•Cumulative >$2BB of FCF in 2025-2027 fundsdebt paydown to $32BB.•PT $11: 1) 6.3X 2026 EPS (67% disct to marketvs. 3-yr avg 67% disct)Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) GHG Emissions - As the largest US network carrier, AAL has influence over thepace of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption through its investments, partnerships, and advocacy.AAL has committed to use 10% SAF by 2030, including a total commitment of >120MM gals, on pace fornet-zero by 2050. AAL was the only airline in A4A to exceed 1MM gals of SAF used in 2021. AAL is theonly passenger airlines in the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index.Company Target(s):1) Achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. 2) Intermediate goals to reduce fuelconsumption by 50MM gals by 2025, use 10% SAF by 2030, and reduce emissions by 45% by 2035. 3)Source 2.5MM GJs of cost-competitive renewable energy by 2025. 4) Fly 30% of ASMs on next-gen aircraftby 2025 vs 17% in 2021.Qs to Mgmt:1) What role are you taking to facilitate the broader adoption of SAF across the aerospacevalue chain? 2) How do you incorporate ESG strategies into your fleet planning decisions?The Five ESG Issues Investors Should Look At When Investing in A&DPlease see important disclosure information on pages 11 - 16 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$18, +58%•Domesticandcontinued strength while the long-haul networkbenefits from the premium push (43% morepremium seats by 2026).•Cost pressures in salaries are more than offsetby the operating leverage of fleet utilization.•Adj. EBITDAR margins at or above high-end of15-18%+ in 2026 on $1BB of cost takeout andAAdvantage negotiation.•Deleveraging progresses ahead of plan; returnof capital deployment and IG credit rating.•PT $18: 6X 2026E EBITDAR Risk/Reward - 12 Month View20181614121086420252024short-haulLatAmshowDownside Scenario,$5, -56%•Strategy focus on small- and midsize domesticmarkets lags in results to peers.•Short-haul RASMs fail to inflect given industrycapacity growth & softening demand.•Lost Managed Corporate share.•Adj. EBITDAR margins in the single-digits asCASM-ex remains elevated; higher fuel.•FCF becomes pressured as profitability erodes,stalling deleveraging progress.•PT $5: 3X 2026E EBITDARCatalysts•Investor Day targets by 2026 of 15-18%EBITDAR margins and >$3BB of FCF•Regain of lost corporate share of $375MM perquarter•Reactivation of the regional fleet ahead of planby 2026•$1BB of efficiency savings•Strength of short-haul network(~75%)inDomestic and LatAm•Deleveraging to ~$39BB in 2025 and <$35BB by2027•Re-introduction of shareholder returns viarepurchases 2 Investor Day Goals Largely Aligned.AAL continues to emphasize its strategy of running a reliableoperation, efficiently produced capacity, scale the new Citi credit card deal, and invest in the product& customer experience, which has informed the walkback of the indirect corporate strategy to meetcustomers where they want to do business.Demand Trends Stable.Mgmt reiterated recent commentary that demand trends remain stablefrom the Q1 exit rates, led by international long-haul & business customers while Main Cabin remainsthe softer segment. Leadership's day starts with revenue information & bookings across severalwindows of the curve. From a broader industry perspective, it remains a positive that low-costcompetitors are reducing H2 capacity (JEFe/cons Q2 TRASM -3.1%/-3.0%) although it remains to beseen how the network peers react in terms of magnitude & timing of cuts, w/ AAL using GDP growthas a guardrail for its own capacity. Gov't travel (~1.5% of sales) remains stable off the low base setexiting Q1 as well and has not regressed further.Full Recapture on Track by End of Year w/ Deals Signed Supportive.AAL reiterated the indirectchannel recapture ($14BB in