思爱普公司（SAP SE）：中期指引不变，但产品创新支撑增长持续性

Restricted - External SAPG.DE/SAP GYOVERWEIGHTEuropeanSoftware&PaymentsNEUTRALPrice TargetEUR 275.00Price (21-May-25)EUR 265.80Potential Upside/Downside+3.5%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropeanSoftware& PaymentsSven Merkt, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 1254sven.merkt@barclays.comBarclays, UKAlice Jennings+44 (0)20 3134 9087alice.jennings@barclays.comBarclays, UKGrégoire Hermann, CAIA+44 (0)20 7773 1301gregoire.hermann@barclays.comBarclays, UKYaamir Badhe+44 (0)20 7773 3700yaamir.badhe@barclays.comBarclays, UKU.S.SoftwareRaimo Lenschow, CFA+1 212 526 2712raimo.lenschow@barclays.comBCI, US Update to go-to-market strategySAP provided details of its simpler go-to-market operating model rolled out in early 2025 tofurther improve operationalefficiency,where customer acquisition costs have already declinedby >10% since 2021. This includes a simplification of the customer engagement model, with~40% of customers moved from high-touch to digital-first engagement and 400k customers nowreached through partners. From a sales perspective, the number of regions has been reduced tofour from seven, and there are stronger cross-sell incentives. Furthermore, automation is beingincreasingly used, for example in drawing up contracts.No change to mid-term guideDuring CFO Dominik Asam's presentation, he provided a framework illustrating how thecompany's revenue growth, margin expansion and cash conversion will evolve and how thecompany will achieve its reiterated mid-term targets.On revenue, SAP continues to expect total revenue growth to accelerate through 2027, driven bythe Cloud ERP Suite. CFO Asam explained that if growth were to stay steady for each individualrevenue line, growth would accelerate by 3pp due to a more favourable mix with cloudbecoming an ever larger part of the business. This was to illustrate that mix is supporting anacceleration, although a degradation of the revenue growth or decline of each of the individualline should be expected. In addition, he provided a top-down view of the cloud market, with theaddressable market expected to grow at a 17% CAGR from 2025-28. While SAP's cloud revenuesare growing faster, the non-cloud revenue still accounting for 50% of revenue in FY24, althoughrapidly decreasing, resulting in a drag to total revenue growth. Overall, our interpretation ofboth the bottom and top down view, is that growth will likely be in the 10-12% range in thecoming years.On cost, SAP reiterated its target for operating margin expansion through 2027, and providedincremental detail on where this operating leverage is expected to come from. SAP continues totarget operating expenses to grow at 80-90% of revenue in FY26/27. The company expects thegross margin to remain broadly stable, with the decliningsoftware& support gross marginoffsetby a growing cloud gross margin. Therefore, the majority of improvement will come fromoperating expenses. SAP sees most scope for reducing the sales & marketing ratio (26% ofrevenue in FY24). SAP sees some room to reduce the R&D ratio (19% of revenue in FY24), but ofcourse want to continue to invest, while there is even less scope to lower the G&A ratio, whichwas already veryefficient4% of revenues in FY24. Overall, this suggests a margin expansion of~1pp per year.Finally on free cash flow, SAP aims to maintain cash conversion from adj. EBIT close to, or abovethe 77% targeted for FY25 in the coming years on an underlying basis, with the majority ofimprovement expected to come from revenue growth and margin expansion. SAP maintains itscommitment to a strong balance sheet, but noted that it would consider bolt-on acquisitionsand there is the potential for additional buybacks once the €5bn ongoing programme iscompleted. 2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Raimo Lenschow, CFA, Sven Merkt, CFA, Alice Jennings and Grégoire Hermann, CAIA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this researchreport accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of ourcompensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this rese