西格弗里德控股公司（SFZN）：西格弗里德尼斯会议-优质复合业务依然稳固

F26E21.519.1 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingSFZN.SEOOLDEDMESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate Siegfried Outperform with a price target of CHF142.EUROPEAN BIOPHARMACEUTICALS I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYSiegfried Holding AGWe calculate our CHF142 price target (PT) via the straight average of EV/EBITDA (18x), EV/EBIT (26x) and PE (32x) 2025e peermultiples, using consensus for Polypeptide and Bachem and our estimate for Siegfried and Euroapi, and a DCF (7% WACC & 2%perpetuity growth) to balance the company's short and long-term growth prospects.RISKSSiegfried Holding AGDownside:(1)if sales compound at half our base case assumption of 7% between 2026 and 2034, there would be 19% downsideto our price target (PT). The PT downside would be 30% if Siegfried doesn’t grow over this period(2)Novartis is Siegfried’s largestcustomer accounting for 10-20% of group sales. Although the Manufacturing Service Agreement (MSA) is long term, if it isn’trenewed this would impair Siegfried’s fundamentals(3)M&A is a priority as management wants to continue to diversify. We believethat the 2021 integration of Novartis’ two Barcelona plants is transforming Siegfried’s prospects as it’s driving a mid/long-termimprovement in product mix. But there is no guarantee that management will be able to repeat this excellent M&A execution inthe future.RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorsEUROPEAN BIOPHARMACEUTICALS Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).3 on events and developments.Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.Autonomous brandThe Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks AndFinancial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI)index for developed European banks and Payments, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for Europeaninsurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Payments coverage, S5LIFE for US Insurance, the S&P InsuranceSelect Industry (SPSIINS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid andSmall Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF) for emerging market banks and in