电池储能-重新审视投资案例

20222023Modo GB BESS Index (1-hour, £/MW/year, RHS)0.00Exhibit 3 - Number of hours with day-ahead pricesat most £0/MWh each month.1020304050607080Source: Bloomberg/Jefferies 20242025 Fiona Huang * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7548 5149 | fhuang@jefferies.comMatthew Hose * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8557 | matt.hose@jefferies.comFLASH NOTEGresham House Energy StorageRATINGPRICEPRICE TARGET |52W HIGH-LOWFLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)96.8% | 56.56MARKET CAPTICKERGore Street Energy Storage FundRATINGPRICEPRICE TARGET |52W HIGH-LOWFLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)102.4% | 83.86MARKET CAPTICKER^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwisenoted. 0501001502002503003504004500.00 Exhibit 4 - Day-ahead price range and interquartilerange each month.05010015020020152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Interquartile rangeSource: Bloomberg/JefferiesBalancing mechanism:Since 2023 system prices within the balancing mechanism haveshown reduced volatility, although they remain higher than pre-COVID levels. Notably,the proportion of total generation in the balancing mechanism has risen in parallel withthe growing share of intermittent generation, with peaks and troughs in the balancingmechanism’s share closely aligned with fluctuations in wind and solar output. This trendunderscores the increasing role of balancing mechanism participation in optimising batterystorage revenues in a clean energy system.Exhibit 6 - Balancing mechanism buy and sell volume as a percentage of total generation against windand solar as a percentage of total generation.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%2021BM buy volume as a percentage of total generationWind and Solar as a percentage of total generationSource: Elexon/NESO/JefferiesSkiprates:Since mid-December, National Energy System Operator (NESO) has beenpublishing data on skip rates, using a new methodology that only considers volumesthat are feasible and can be accessed within the required timescales. Under the strictestcriteria, skip rates have remained broadly stable when the system is long - meaning itpays to reduce generation or increase demand - but have shown a slight increase whenthe system is short. This indicates that further improvements to system efficiency arestill necessary. To this end, the long-awaited grid code modification GC0166 has nowcompleted workgroup consultations, with implementation scheduled for July, pending codeadministrator's feedback and Ofgem's approval. As this change aims to establish newparameters for balancing mechanisms involving limited-duration assets, we anticipate asignificant reduction in skip rates once it is in effect.Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2022202320242025BM sell volume as a percentage of total generation Exhibit 7 - Volume weighted-average daily skiprate - System Short.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%15/12/202415/01/202515/02/2025Volume weighted-average daily skipped rate - Offer100%Source: NESO/JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionGresham House Energy StorageGRID invests in a diversified portfolio of utility-scale energy storage systems.Gore Street Energy Storage FundGSF is a closed-ended fund that invests in energy storage assets globally.Company Valuation/RisksGresham House Energy StorageOur estimated NAV includes accrued income and cost. Risks include falling ancillary services prices and narrowing intraday electricity pricespread, as well as construction delays.Gore Street Energy Storage FundOur estimated NAV includes accrued income and cost. Risks include falling ancillary services prices and narrowing intraday electricity pricespread, as well as construction delays.Analyst Certification:I, Fiona Huang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Matthew Hose, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Fiona Huang is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and