2025年第一季度业绩超预期；看好高端化、YU7产能提升及2025年下半年SoC突破

FY25EFY26EFY27E486,144589,018674,45432.921.214.543,879.152,254.661,342.661.119.117.41.612.092.46na1.501.932.4329.422.619.36.24.33.70.00.00.017.516.416.550.630.519.7 Target PriceHK$65.91(Previous TPHK$59.99)Up/Downside27.9%Current PriceHK$51.55China TechnologyAlex NG(852) 39000881alexng@cmbi.com.hkHanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (HK$ mn)1,089,870.1Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn)15,621.752w High/Low (HK$)58.20/15.82Total Issued Shares (mn)21142.0Source: FactSetShareholding StructureSmart Mobile Holdings LtdSource: HKExShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative8.1%-2.9%82.2%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSetRelated reports:Keytakeaways from product launchevent:Self-developed 3nm SoCdebut is the bright spot–23 May2025(link)1Q25 Preview: Expect strong resultsahead; regained No.1 in China amidAppleweakness–2 May 2025 (link)Placementconfirmed for globalbusiness expansion–25 Mar 2025(link)4Q24 strong beat; Raise estimateson upbeat EV target and overseasIoTupside-19 Mar 2025 (link) Lin Bin8.6%8.6%1-mth1.6%3-mth-1.5%6-mth50.9%1.2.3.4. 3.10.0 1 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEFocus ChartsFigure1: Xiaomi’srevenue trendSource:Company data, CMBIGM estimatesFigure3: Xiaomi’ssmartphone shipment forecastSource:Company data, CMBIGM estimatesFigure5: Xiaomi’ssmart large home appliancesSource:Company data, CMBIGM-15%-3%010020030040050020222023RMB bnOthersInternet servicesSmart phones151146-5010015020025020222023(mn units)Shipment 16918120242025E Source:Companydata, CMBIGM estimatesFigure4: Globalleadership in all major marketsSource:Companydata, CMBIGMFigure6:Xiaomi’sXRING O1 SoCSource:Company data, CMBIGM PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE1Q25ReviewFigure7:1Q25resultsreviewRMB mnRevenueGross profitOperating profitAdj. net profitAdj. EPS (RMB)Gross marginOperatingmarginAdj. net marginSource: Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimatesFigure8: Revenue breakdownRMB mnSmart phones…YoYShipments (000 units)…YoYASP (RMB)…YoYIoT andlifestyle products…YoYSmart TVs and laptops…YoYOther IoTs…YoYInternet services…YoYAdvertising services…YoYInternet value-addedservices…YoYGaming…YoYOther(incl. Youpin fintech, etc.)…YoYEVBusinessShipments (units)ASP (RMB)Others…YoYTotal…YoYGross marginSmart phonesIoT and lifestyle productsInternet servicesEV BusinessOthersTotalSource: Company data,CMBIGMestimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEEarnings RevisionFigure8: CMBIGM earnings revisionRMB mnFY25ERevenue486,144Gross profit108,979Operating profit46,016Adj. net profit43,879Adj. EPS (RMB)1.61Gross margin22.4%Operating margin9.5%Adj. net margin9.0%Source: Company data,CMBIGMestimatesFigure9: CMBIGM estimates vs consensusRMB mnFY25ERevenue486,144Gross profit108,979Operating profit46,016Adj. net profit43,879Adj. EPS (RMB)1.61Gross margin22.4%Operating margin9.5%Adj. net margin9.0%Source: Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimatesFigure 11: P&L forecastRMB mnFY24Revenue365,903…YoY35%Cost of sales(289,343)Gross profit76,560GPM (%)20.9%…YoY33%SG&A(30,991)…%of rev-8.5%R&D(24,050)…% of rev-6.6%Operating profit24,503OPM (%)6.7%…YoY22%Adj. net profit27,235NPM (%)7.4%…YoY41%Source: Company data,CMBIGMestimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEValuationMaintain BUY withnewSOTP-based TP of HK$65.91We derive our TP of HK$65.91based on the SOTP methodology in order to reflect differentgrowth profiles of Xiaomi’s various businesses. We assign 26x/26x/25x FY25E P/E to itssmartphone/AIoT/Internetbusinesses,which we think are justified given Xiaomi’saccelerated share gains insmartphone/IoT market, overseas expansion of its ecosystem,improving profitability across smartphone/AIoT/internet segments and sector re-rating foredge AI upcycle. For EV business, we assign 2.0x FY26E P/S. In addition, we believe ourimplied target multiple of 37.7x FY25E P/E is justified, when compared to 1) valuation of34x FY25E P/E for global industry leader, Apple, and 2) valuation of 31.2x P/E for its 1-sdabove6-year historical forward P/E,given upcoming product upcycles for its AIsmartphone,IoT overseas expansion and EV product launches in 2025.Upcomingcatalysts includeSUV model launch,smartphone/AIoT share gains,overseas storeexpansion and EV order/delivery/profitability updates.Figure12: Xiaomi–SOTP valuationBusiness segmentSmart phonesAIoT and lifestyle productsInternet servicesOthersSmartEVCash (RMB mn)Debt (RMB mn)Investment (RMB mn)Total (RMB mn)No.of shares (mn)TP (RMB)TP (HK$)Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimatesFigure13: 12M forward P/E bandSource: Bloomberg, CMBIGM05101520253035404550 FY25E Rev(RMB mn)% of FY25ECore NPFY25ECore NP(RMB mn)Valuationmethodology214,65230%12,633133,84237%15,83038,34933%14,1103,769-1%(229)150,077Figure14: 12M forward P/B bandSource: Bloomberg, CMBIGM1-yr Forward P/EMeanMean+1SDMean-1SD01234567 Target Mutiple(x)P/E26.0P/E26.0P/E25.0P/E25.0P/S2.001-yr Forward P/BMean+1SD PLEAS