石基信息（002153 CH）持有的海外业务持续性存在不确定性

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.◆4Q24earnings misson higher hardware contribution butARRgrowthremainsrobust; 1Q25net profitin linewith expectations◆New overseasDaylight PMScustomer wins implied improvingrecognition; uncertaintypersists given datasecurity concerns◆Maintain Hold; roll over valuation baseyear to 2026e (from2025e);lower PS-basedTPto RMB8.00 (fromRMB8.10)4Q24miss,1Q25 in linewith expectations;more visibility needed.Shiji’s 4Q24net lossincreased80% y-o-y,missingour expectationsdue toahigher-than-expectedhardware contribution and lowergross margin.However, 2024 SaaS ARR grew 25%y-o-y, beatingour expectations.1Q25 net profitincreased85% y-o-y,offa low base,butin line with our expectations.Shiji’s share priceis up7%y-t-d(vs CSI 300 down1%over the same period),due tosolid 1Q25 earnings andstrongsentiment onModelContext Protocol(AI MCP).Looking ahead,we believeShiji lacksnear-term shareprice catalystsas:(1)the soft consumption environment mightcontinuetoweigh onIT demand fromdomestic hotel, catering, retail, and tourism industries;and(2)overseasDaylight PMSsalesoutlook remain uncertaingivenlarge overseas hotel group’sdataprivacy concerns,prolonged project cycle,and competition from overseas peers.Wemay turn more positive onthestock if we see flagship overseasDaylightPMSorderwinsfromleadingluxuryhotel groups.Improving overseascustomer recognition; short-term uncertainties remain.In1Q25,Shiji signeda newmaster services agreement with Rosewood Hotel GrouptoprovideDaylight PMSand Infrasyspoint of saletoc80Rosewood hotelsglobally(source:Company data), implying improving customerrecognition.However,itmighttake timeto integrate witholdersystems and trial operationsbefore large-scaleproject delivery,thus,we expect limited revenue contributionover2025-26. Moreover,looking ahead,theoverseasDaylight PMSsalesoutlook remainsuncertain,given(1)customers’data privacy concerns,(2) prolonged supplier selection and projectdelivery cycle,and(3)competition from overseassoftwarepeers.Earnings revisions; introduceestimates for2027.We lower our revenue estimatesby 7% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, aswe expect weakerIT spending from domesticretail, catering, and tourismindustries.We lower our 2025-26 gross margin estimatesby 4ppt each yearas we factor in thehigher hardware contribution. Along with stricterexpense controlmeasures, we lower ourearnings estimatesby 115%in 2025 and48%in2026(partially due to a low base).With this report, weintroduce ourestimatesfor 2027.Maintain Hold;lowerTPtoRMB8.00(from RMB8.10).We continue to use a PSmultiple and refer to A-share SaaS players’ valuation to value Shiji. We rollforwardourvaluation base year to 2026e (from 2025e) and applyalower9.8x2026etarget PS(previously10x 2025e target PS)to value Shijionthe back oflower revenue CAGR.Based on our2026 softwarerevenue estimates of RMB2.2bn (previously our 2025software revenue estimate was RMB2.2bn), we derive our newTPof RMB8.00(previouslyRMB8.10).Our TP implies c4% upside fromcurrent levels; accordingly,we maintain our Hold rating on the stock. Seekey upside/downside risksonpage6.ShijiInformation(002153 CH)Hold:Persistent uncertainties in overseas business Find out morePREVIOUS TARGET(RMB)8.10UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+4.3%20,933Free float2,915BBG42RIC12/2024a12/2025e-0.07-0.00-0.000.03-1751.9nm0.020.04nmnm0.00.0nm153.1-2.8-0.211/24High: 9.04 Low: 4.90 Current: 7.67 59%002153 CH002153.SZ12/2026e12/2027e0.040.100.07na-48.0na0.06199.278.20.00.380.245.21.53.74.306.959.6005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(RMBm)Revenue2,9473,1383,417EBITDA-49114215Depreciation & amortisation-218-207-196Operating profit/EBIT-267-9319Net interest142140145PBT-12547164HSBC QianhaiPBT-12547164Taxation-23-23-23Net profit-199-12105HSBC Qianhainet profit-199-12105Cash flow summary(RMBm)Cash flow from operations6763157Capex-428-104-114Cash flow from investment396-114-124Dividends-9900Change innet debt297-90-178FCF equity-361-4144Balance sheet summary(RMBm)Intangible fixed assets2,9782,9112,862Tangible fixed assets637601567Current assets5,5125,6775,964Cash & others4,2384,3284,506Total assets9,4479,5189,73310,128Operating liabilities1,4771,5251,599Gross debt000Net debt-4,238-4,328-4,506-4,795Shareholders' funds7,0977,0857,190Invested capital4,6164,5404,492Ratio,growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue7.26.58.9EBITDA-178.089.2Operating profitPBT249.4HSBC QianhaiEPSRatios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.70.70.8ROIC-2.50.83.3ROE-2.8-0.21.5ROA-1.50.31.5EBITDA margin-1.73.66.3Operating profit margin-9.1-3.00.5EBITDA/net interest (x)0.3Net debt/equity-53.3-54.2-55.5Net debt/EBITDA (x)86.8-38.1-21.0CF from operations/net debtPer share data(RMB)EPS Rep (diluted)-0.07-0.000.04HSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)-0.07-0.000.04DPS0.000.000.00Book value2.602.602.63Financials & valuatio