JEF中小盘主题——在美元走弱的延长时期内我们的许多主题行之有效

Equity ResearchMay 27, 2025Steven G. DeSanctis, CFA * | Equity Strategist(212) 284-2056 | sdesanctis@jefferies.comJane Gibbons * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8657 | jgibbons1@jefferies.com13 Buy Rated domestically oriented ideas beatAnalystAlexanderBarishWestinghouse Air BrakeBoroditskyFannonHechtKahyaogluMarksMooreNgPetersenSarconeSlagleTanquilutSource: FactSet; FTSE Russell; JefferiesMany of our themes thrive in a weaker dollarenvironment, including small vs. large-Source: FactSet; Standard & Poor's; FTSE Russell; JefferiesSome interest in small caps recently, still not0 STRATEGY NOTEnumbers & raised guidanceTickerNameCTVACorteva Inc.WINGWingstopWABVIRTVirtu Fin'lSLMSLM CorpWWDWoodwardLWLamb WestonCARAvis BudgetCCKCrown HoldSTAGSTAG IndustrialPENPenumbra Inc.CHEFChefs' WarehouseEHCEncompass Health---the case for the Cyclicals02/9Source: FactSet; Jefferies ..3/1 Performance Scorecard—The pause that reinvigorates:We liked the title ofThoughts & Observationsthis month, as the pause in tariffs have boosted a recovery in equities and the Cyclicals. The one issueis that small is still lagging large and the QQQ, but we are seeing interest in the size segment pick-up, which is a good thing. Many of our Themes areworking, but some are still a work in progress.Several points:•The Russell 2000 has bounced by close to 16% since the low on April 8 with good momentum continuing in May. However, large is bouncinghigher, are about breakeven YTD, and down less than 3% since the peak in small caps on November 25.•The Cyclicals are showing strength in May but are still down more than Secular Growth YTD and since the low.•Active managers are slightly below their benchmarks in May, but are doing better both YTD and since the low, but we would have expected more•Although performance has been poor for the smallest of the small, they are seeing both better performance in May and interest is picking up andwe "hope" this continues. More inflows to the size segment would be a very nice tailwind for this theme.•As soon as we moved to Domestic over Foreign, we see performance going in the opposite direction. We are still concerned that US companiesthat have more overseas exposure will be in the crosshairs of the unwind of "American Exceptionalism".Table 1 - Nice bounce by the Cyclicals, but more to go; Active just OK in May, better YTD and since the peak.SizeTime FrameR2R1ValueMay2.35.1Year to Date-7.8-0.2Since 11/25-15.7-2.4Note: Performance is through May 22, 2025; High Momentum represented by the DWAS ETF.Source: FactSet; FTSE Russell; JefferiesMacro factors support many of our themes:We shifted the correlations to reflect Domestic vs. Foreign, given the change in our theme.Table 2 - Macro factors across our themes.Small overMacro VariableLarge10-Yr Yield2-Yr YieldShape of CurveHY SpreadInflation ExpectDollarOilVIXYoY VIXLEIYoY LEIFed FundsSmall Biz Loan RateHY YTMSource: FactSet; Standard & Poor's; FTSE Russell; JefferiesSome of our Themes are driven by sector performance:Table 3 - Sector weights by theme.GICS SectorsSmallLargeComm Serv2.59.5Discretionary9.410.7Staples3.25.7Energy4.63.1Financials19.614.6Health Care16.19.6Industrials18.39.6Info Tech13.330.2Materials4.02.2Real Estate6.02.4Utilities3.12.4Note: Style is by weight while rest is countSource: FactSet; FTSE Russell; JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. StyleCohortValuationsMarket CapROEGrowthCyclicals Growth Bond Proxies Low PEHigh PESmallestLargestHighest3.15.36.62.1-1.33.75.44.73.95.6-8.7-7.0-7.4-9.9-4.7-8.3-8.4-13.7-5.7-1.4-16.8-14.6-16.1-16.3-11.9-17.0-15.8-18.2-14.7-10.5Correlations between relative performance and Macro FactorValue overSmaller SmallBetter BalanceDomestic vs.GrowthCyclicalsCapsValuationsQualitySheetsForeignPEG0.070.740.420.32-0.09-0.10-0.700.25-0.68-0.300.440.42-0.180.270.31-0.600.01-0.260.580.17-0.200.67-0.54-0.620.170.27-0.360.030.130.01-0.02-0.21-0.110.310.17-0.200.350.460.470.43-0.08-0.24-0.57-0.05-0.38-0.74-0.47-0.13-0.720.630.710.01-0.220.530.160.140.70-0.030.240.11-0.30-0.530.11-0.13-0.09-0.11-0.08-0.11-0.100.28-0.06-0.06-0.10-0.15-0.22-0.18-0.38-0.040.370.080.01-0.54-0.56-0.12-0.690.530.550.05-0.430.690.340.00-0.260.360.18-0.11-0.130.160.04-0.350.280.43-0.260.310.37-0.53-0.07-0.21-0.180.460.53-0.070.180.22-0.53-0.06-0.390.060.470.210.13-0.25-0.15-0.050.28-0.52Weight (in %)GrowthValueLargestSmallestHigh ROELow ROELow DTCHigh DTCForeignDomestic2.03.02.63.95.23.13.57.24.33.99.69.19.811.916.36.75.416.111.010.23.82.62.62.64.42.31.92.74.12.73.06.44.74.45.43.44.34.05.35.49.131.019.411.915.03.19.915.35.324.023.58.013.440.217.655.441.921.714.224.923.512.618.910.618.98.511.813.720.512.219.56.615.07.011.412.217.28.325.45.34.04.13.92.62.33.12.42.78.32.21.410.85.44.12.81.60.87.00.87.20.55.84.40.80.80.50.81.30.62.0 Foreign SalesHighestHighActiveLowestHighLowSales Growth Momentum Managers2.96.83.25.54.847.4-15.3-8