工业房地产投资信托基金-时代之旅

Equity ResearchMay 27, 2025Jonathan Petersen * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1705 | jpetersen@jefferies.comAhmed Mehri * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8456 | amehri@jefferies.comMatthew Roberts * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8524 | mroberts1@jefferies.comKEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:PRICE TARGET$198.00$119.00PRICE TARGET$198.00 ($197.00)$65.00 ($66.00)$119.00 ($117.00)$12.00 ($11.00)Exhibit 1 - Price to NTM FFO ComparisonSource: Jefferies, Company Materials, FactSetExhibit 2 - Industrial Warehouse Eras By TheSource: Jefferies, US Census Bureau, polb.com,*Rapid Globalization Business-Inventory-to-Sales Ratio from Summary of ChangesCompanyRexford Industrial RealtyREXRPreviousEastGroup PropertiesEGPPreviousTerrenoTRNOPreviousPrologisPLDPreviousLXP Industrial TrustLXPPreviousSTAG IndustrialSTAGPreviousFirst IndustrialFRPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.FFO: LXP represent FFO on a normalized basis.Please see important disclosure information on pages 58 - 65 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY$34.67BUY$164.82BUY$55.15BUY$104.04BUY$8.23BUY$34.07BUY$48.16 Executive SummaryThe Eras Tour:U.S warehousing and logistics have been reshaped by three major economic eras.1) 1985-2011: Rapid Globalizationsaw surging trade and U.S. $ imports grow at a 4.6% CAGR fromChina-led offshoring and trade agreements (NAFTA, WTO). Expanded imports established the portsof LA and Long Beach as international distribution hubs, seeing container traffic grow at a 7.3%CAGR.2) 2011-2021: The E-Commerce Boomintroduced a new growth engine as retailers expandedfulfillment networks to satisfy consumers skyrocketing online orders. U.S. e-commerce sales grewat a 14.4% CAGR, much faster than U.S. retail sales (2.8% CAGR), as e-comm market share increasedto 18.3% from 6.3% in 2011. Industrial net absorption averaged +238.7M sq ft per year during this era,per CoStar, with warehouse demand and rents growing the fastest in port/infill markets like SoCaland New Jersey/New York.3)2021-Present:The Manufacturing Reinvestment era is ongoing and bolstered by U.S.government bills (CHIPS/IRA) and tariffs to incentivize reshoring of manufacturing. During this era,construction spending increased at a 38% CAGR ('21-'24) as $1 trillion of private investments wereannounced. This era has had the reverse effect on coastal port markets due to a slowdown in globaltrade and warehouse absorption shifting to Sunbelt and Midwest manufacturing markets. From2021 to 2024, occupied warehouse sq ft in manufacturing markets grew at a 2.1% CAGR vs thenational average of 1.4%.Manufacturing Reinvestment Continues Under Trump:We think 2025 starts the second leg of themanufacturing reinvestment era. Increased protectionist policies under the Trump administrationwill influence manufacturing decisions that businesses make, driving new warehouse demand. InPresident Trump's first 100 days, his administration has secured private investments totaling $2Trillion. In addition, many foreign countries are announcing plans to invest in the U.S. For example,the UAE ($1.4T over the next decade), Saudi Arabia ($600B over the next 4 years), and Japan ($1Trillion) have all pledged significant investments, per whitehouse.gov. While still in the early stages,over the last year, we've started to hear examples of manufacturing tenants and/or the supportingsupply chain signing leases. In our 2025 Industrial Outlook (Jan 2025), we estimated that every $1B ofmanufacturing investment drives an incremental 350k SF of warehouse net absorption, split evenlybetween manufacturing (~175k SF) and supporting supply chain (~175k SF). In our updated demandmodel, we expect an average of ~86M sq ft per year until 2029.E-Commerce Tailwinds Continue:E-comm demand continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, andthis form of consumer shopping requires more warehouse sq ft. Our productivity factor analysis(sales per square foot of warehouse space) found that e-commerce businesses need even morewarehouse space today than they did in 2016, likely from the expansion of next-day and same-dayshipping. Using our e-commerce demand model, we estimate that e-commerce penetration (of Retailsales + Food services, ex. Auto & Gas) will grow ~30 bps per year, to a total penetration of 21.0% by2030, resulting in an avg of ~92M sq ft of absorption per year.What Do Our Earnings Models Assume?As shown in Exhibit 7, we project that GAAP leasing spreadsfor STAG, LXP, & EGP will remain above 40% through 2026, which is about 1,000-2,000 bps abovecoastal peers. This is partially driven by our assumption of higher rent growth in those markets, butis also a reflection of the easier comps on renewals (i.e., where rents were about 5 years ago). Alarge rent rebound in SoCal, driven by inventory building, could result in our assumptions being toomodest for PLD, REXR, TRNO, & FR.Please see important disclosure information on pages 58 - 6