菲律宾经济评论：汇款征税——没什么大不了的

PhilippineEconomicsComment Economics Philippines Taxing remittances–no bigdeal ◆The USHouse of Representativespassed a tax bill that included a 3.5% tax onremittances from the US sent by non-US citizens or nationals Aris DacanayEconomist, ASEANTheHongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limitedaris.dacanay@hsbc.com.hk+852 3945 1247 ◆We do not think thiswill take a substantial toll onPhilippineremittances ◆This is because of thelarge numberofpermanentFilipino emigrants in the USwho are able to send remittances taxfree Facts The US House of Representatives passed a tax bill on 22 May 2025 which included a 3.5% taxlevyonremittances from the US transferred by non-US citizens or nationals(Financial Times,25 May 2025). Ifpassedby the Senate and signed by the USPresident, the tax scheme wouldbe effective starting 1 January 2026.The tax rate of 3.5% was a reduction from the original proposal of 5%. Implications Will thenew levybe bad for theeconomy?Remittancesrepresent a large componentofthe Philippines’current accountandfuelhousehold consumption; 41%are sourced from the US(seeChart1).But we don’tthink thereismuchto worry about.We estimate the potentialnegativeimpact of the new 3.5% tax levy onremittances to the Philippines atjust0.003% of GDP. The key hereis thatOverseasFilipinoWorkers(OFWs)in the US are not the only ones sending remittancesto the Philippines.As of 2022, there were3.3m Filipino permanent migrants in the US(source:Foreign ServiceInstitute),whilein 2023therewere only211,000OFWs in North and South America1(Source: PhilippineStatistics Authority).In addition, the Philippine Foreign Service Institute estimatedthere were370,000undocumented migrants in the USin 2022.The huge scale ofpermanentemigrants providesPhilippineremittanceswitha layer of insulationbecauseremittances by US citizens or nationals will not be taxed. Survey data estimatesthat OFWsassigned to North and SouthAmericaremitted a total ofUSD219m andUSD372min 2022 and 2023, respectively. However,totalremittances transferred through banksfrom the USalonewereUSD13.4bnin 2022 andUSD13.7bnin 20232.Comparing the two data points may be misleadingsince the methodologies usedwere different. Nonetheless, thehugedisparity suggests thatalarge proportionof remittances from the USweresent by Filipino US citizens or nationals. Notethat remittances havebecome less important to the economysincemore OFWshave beenfinding workathome(Back to the homeland and into the gigs, 24 November 2023). Remittances as a share of GDP havedeclined over the years, while their contribution to current account inflows havealso fallen(Charts 3 and 4). Disclosure appendix Analyst certification The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecastsexpressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Aris Dacanay This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for theclients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means. This document does not provide individually tailored investment advice and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitationof an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained within this document isbelieved to be reliable but we do not guarantee its completeness or accuracy.Any opinions expressed herein are subject tochange without notice.HSBC may hold a position in, buy or sell on a principal basis or act as a market maker in any financialinstrument discussed herein. HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives) ofcompanies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis. Analyst(s) are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues. Additional disclosures 1This report is dated as at 27 May 2025.2All market data included in this report are dated as at close 26 May 2025, unless a different date and/or a specific time ofday is indicated in the report.3HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with itsResearch business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination ofResearch operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business.Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businessesto ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitiveinformation is handled in an appropriate manner.4You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpos