Freenet：年初开局缓慢

Restricted - External FNTGn.DE/FNTN GYEQUAL WEIGHTUnchangedEuropean Telecom ServicesNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetEUR 35.50lowered -7% from EUR 38.00Price (26-May-25)EUR 29.30Potential Upside/Downside+21.2%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (EUR mn)3483Shares Outstanding (mn)118.90Free Float (%)94.6452 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.3Dividend Yield (%)6.31Return on Equity TTM (%)16.34Current BVPS (EUR)12.11Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-GER52 Week rangeEUR 37.43-22.94Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean Telecom ServicesMathieu Robilliard+44 (0)20 3134 3288mathieu.robilliard@barclays.comBBI, ParisMaurice Patrick+44 (0)20 3134 3622maurice.patrick@barclays.comBarclays, UKGanesha Nagesha+91 (0)22 6175 1712ganesha.nagesha@barclays.comBarclays, UK 2025E FCF guidance (€300m-320m). We cut our DCF-based price target to €35.50 vs €38.0/shareprior, leaving upside potential of c.+21%. On our estimates, Freenet trades at 8.4x FY25E EV/EBITDA, 9.3x EV/OpFCF andoffersan 8% EFCF yield. This compares to its peer group at 7.8x,12.9x, and 8%.FNTGn.DE: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (EUR)FY Dec20232024202520262027EPS2.01A2.06A2.18E2.30E2.46EPrevious EPS2.01A1.96A2.29E2.39E2.56EConsensus EPS1.30A2.08A2.45E2.61E2.87EP/E14.614.213.412.711.9Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 26-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 FIGURE 1. Freenet - Summary vs. Barclays, Company Consensus2Q24A*3Q24A 4Q24A 1Q25A 1Q25E Consens60561965660461150652053050550642743443242343299991091001051017(0)12712813612613021.0%20.6%20.8%20.9%21.3%1071091051031072526243029(6)(7)8(7)(6)77697276743.4%2.2%5.9%2.0%0.7%-0.3%0.2%-0.4%16.2%14.9%16.3%6.7%-0.3%5.0%8.0%0.7%Source: Company, Barclays Research estimates. Company-compiled consensus1Q25 - Results review1Q25 revenues came in c. -1% below consensus/Barclays and EBITDA came in c. -3% below. FCFhowever was c. +2% higher. At the revenue level, mobile service revenues were -1.5%/-2.0%below consensus/Barclays with volumes above and showing a continuation of the accelerationseen since 3Q24 driven notably by the newtariffs.Yet service revenue growth declined (-0.4%yoy) due to lower ARPU (-1.7% yoy). In TV & Media, revenues came in c. -5% below expectationswith net adds lower than expected, although the company indicated it was in line with itsinternal expectations. At the EBITDA level, both divisions missed vs consensus (above Barclaysin TV & Media). On Mobile, EBITDA declined -0.7% yoy. The company flagged higher brandmarketing expenses that will gradually phase out. On TV & Media, the company posted solidEBITDA growth (+8.4%), but below consensus expectations (above Barclays). All guidances(group and divisional) were reiterated. FCF came in above with lower lease/tax and capex morethanoffsettingthe EBITDA miss. usVar Barc(€m)Var BARC(%)Var Cons(€m)Var Cons(%)611(7)-1.1%(7)-1.1%504(1)-0.1%10.2%429(9)-2.0%(6)-1.5%105(5)-4.9%(5)-5.0%02(1)nm(2)nm130(4)-2.9%(4)-2.9%21.2%-0.4pp-0.4pp105(4)-3.4%(2)-1.6%3112.2%(1)-2.9%(6)(1)12.0%(1)18.6%7411.9%22.3%4 FIGURE 3. Freenet: Mobile service revenues (€m)0501001502002503003504004505001Q212Q213Q21Postpaid service revenuesSource: Company data, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. Freenet: Mobile service revenues (€m) and growth (%)FIGURE 5. Freenet: Freenet TV subscribers (RGUs 000s)-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%2Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25Growth (%)01002003004005006007008009001Q212Q21Source: Company data, Barclays Research1Q25 - Operational review Source: Company data, Barclays Research4004054104154204254304354401Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23Total service revenuesSource: Company data, Barclays Research27 May 2025 Source: Company data, Barclays Research27 May 2025 FIGURE 9. Freenet - Changes in estimates (EURm, %)NewOld2025E2026E2027E2025E2,4962,5762,6582,5299981,0521,0931,02752154456653553554456654925426828626622223103013133135024493775112.132.072.152.152,0852,1192,1532,0921,7371,7691,8021,7524244304304354124615084411231381611257.88.08.17.822.022.122.322.00.400.300.260.402,3602,8103,2602,391Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimatesForecasts and valuationChanges to estimatesWe adjusted our estimates following the 1Q25 results. We remain in line with company guidancefor 2025.FIGURE 8. Freenet - 2025E Barclays vs Guidance2025ERevenue growth (%)Adj. EBITDA (EURm)FCF (EURm)Postpaid ARPU (EUR)Postpaid customers - Net adds ('000)Freenet-TV RGU - Net adds ('000)waipu.tv subscribers - Net adds ('000)Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimates Change (%)2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2,6142,698-1.3%-1.4%-1.5%1,0751,117-2.8%-2.2%-2.1%556583-2.6%-2.3%-2.9%556583-2.5%-2.3%-2.9%278299-4.8%-3.7%-4.1%23-4.8%-3.7%-4.1%304316-1.0%-0.7%-1.2%458385-1.8%-2.1%-2.0%2.092.17-1.0%-0.7%-1.2%2,1312,170-0.3%-0.6%-0.8%1,7891,827-0.8%-1.1%-1.4%440441-2.6%-2.3%-2.4%489534-6.6%-5.7%-4.8%141167-1.3%-1.9%-3.7%8.08.10.0%0.1%0.1%22.122.30.0%0.0%0.1%0.300.260.0%0.0%0.0%2,8413,241-1.3%-1.1%0.6%GuidanceBarclaysModerate growth0.7%520 - 540521300 - 3