联合信贷银行（UCG）：与管理层同行——反馈

Restricted - External European BanksPaola Sabbione+39 (0)2 6372 2579paola.sabbione@barclays.comBBI, MilanDibin Meledath Koruthu, CFA+ 91 (22) 6175 2514dibin.meledathkoruthu@barclays.comBarclays, UK Excess capital distribution commitment. Management reiterated its commitment toreturn excess capital to shareholders or use excess capital for M&A by the end of 2027. This hasnot changed, despite the higher capital levels, also considering that organic capital generationimproved, and with the fee pool becoming a more important portion of the revenues, which willimprove further.Q2 and rest of 2025 expectations.UCG thinks that Q2-Q3 and possibly Q4 trends will be toughfor the industry in general, as there is a certain time-lag between rate cuts and NII declines, andfrom Q2 the hit on NII should be stronger. However, from Q4 and in 2025, volumes should bemore helpful and also fees could improve (higher net inflows in AUM, higher lending-relatedfees, etc). For UCG, FY incorporates this prudent view on the next 3 quarters, with some upsidepotential should fees hold up better than expected from Q2 (April wassoft,but May seems tobe recovering already). Moreover, non-operating charges are expected to be lower YoY in 2025(integration costs and overlays were €c.3bn in total in 2024), which supports the YoY net profitcomparison (and also createsbuffersto support future years’ P&L).Business strategy in Italy. UCG continues to be focused on improving its NII-ROAC in Italy; thisremains a keydifferencevs competitors, as in the past UCG has been able to adjust thecommercialeffortto the EVA positive loans (vs a logic of EVA positive client-relation, over acertain time horizon that most peers adopt) and now is pivoting volumes more towarddifferentclients (consumer, micro enterprises for instance) with higher margins and higher potential forcross selling. This can drive NIM higher, with some initial pressure on volumes, but still will besupportive for the overall NII ROAC. Looking at the next quarters, management expects someimprovement in lending dynamics, but growth will be limited, considering the limited expectedGDP trends in Italy.Business strategy in Germany. German loan growth is expected to pick up from Q4 this year,and more so in 2025 and 2026. However, it will remain below the CEE levels, and it will continueto be focused on EVA-positive lending, as we mentioned above for Italy, but still should bestimulated by the government fiscal expansion and by the general GDP improvement.Partnership with Google. Management focused on this new partnership, as it is a big step forthe group in term of digitalization. The key element to underline is that this migration to Cloudwill happen at no extra cost.Asset quality. The environment is expected to remain very benign. The normalized cost of riskmight be higher than what UCG sees right now, in the mid term (closer to 20bps vs the current<10bps). However, a country like Italy is unlikely to see its asset quality deteriorating back to thehistorical average, given the limited NPL stocks in all banks, and sounder NPL management alsoimposed by the regulatory / accounting changes; Germany, on the opposite, might see a belowgroup average cost of risk (c.15bps for example), which would still be above the extremely lowhistorical average.2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Paola Sabbione, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts