4月零售销售回报效应仍在形成

penciled in for the current quarter.Restricted - External Jonathan Millar+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, USColin Johanson+1 212 526 8536colin.johanson@barclays.comBCI, USMarc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, USPooja Sriram+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, US the BEA's estimates for consumer service spending, which account for the lion's share (abouttwo-thirds) of PCE. Sales at eating and drinking places appear to have regained momentum inMarch and April following a lull earlier this year, with sales up 1.2% m/m in April (Figure 7)following a March estimate that was revised up 1.8pp to 3.0% m/m. This provides an importantoffsetto April's weakness in the control group category.We suspect that this may be partly tied to a frontrunning dynamic for goods spending, in partbecause consumersoftenpurchase restaurant meals while shopping, and, in part, becauseconsumers likely also expecttariff-relatedincreases in restaurant prices in the coming months.Hence, we are penciling in that about half of this recent strengthening will be paid back over therest of Q2.Revisions to seasonal adjustment factors appear to have accentuated recent frontrunningdynamics.As shown in Figure 2, revisions to this year's seasonal adjustment factors haveleftnotable imprints on the %m/m trajectory of control group sales,shiftinggrowth from Januaryto February. Revisions have also accentuated swings in March and April, with seasonaladjustments weighing less than normal on the March print and providing a smaller-than-normalboost to the April estimate. Indeed, thiseffectwas one of the reasons that we had expected amuchsoftergain in the control group category than the consensus in this release. Using forwardseasonal adjustments for control group components already published by the Census Bureau, itappears that seasonal adjustments will exert less of a drag on the %m/m May print than in prioryears (Figure 3).FIGURE 1. Retail salessoftenedin April, led by the control groupRetail SalesDec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25Retail Sales and food services0.8-0.90.01.70.1Ex Auto0.7-0.30.40.80.1Ex Auto & Gas0.6-0.40.51.10.1Control Group1.0-0.50.80.5-0.2Motor vehicle dealers1.0-3.4-1.76.0-0.1Gasoline stations2.01.1-0.7-2.5-0.5Building material and supply stores-1.5-1.8-0.22.90.8Food Services & Drinking Places0.00.2-0.53.01.2Contributions to Control Group (pp)Automotive Parts, Acc & Tire Stores0.0-0.10.00.00.0Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores0.10.00.00.00.0Electronics & Appliance Stores0.00.00.00.00.0Food & Beverage Stores0.20.00.00.00.0Health & Personal Care Stores0.0-0.10.30.10.0Clothing & Accessory Stores0.10.00.00.10.0Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores0.1-0.10.00.1-0.1General Merchandise Stores0.10.10.00.10.0Miscellaneous Stores Retailers0.20.00.10.1-0.1Nonstore Retailers0.3-0.30.40.00.1Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics2 Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. Sales leveled in April following March's frontrunning...-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5Mar-24Jun-24Sep-24Dec-24% m/mRetail salesHeadlineControlSource: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics15 May 2025 FIGURE 8. Barclays Q2 GDP tracking estimateBarclaysofficialQ2 GDP forecast (initial)US Q2 GDP tracker at 1.2% q/q saarWith the release of the April retail sales estimates, we initiate our Q2 tracking with forecasts forsource data calibrated to align with ourofficialforecasts for GDP growth (1.0% q/q saar) andPCE (1.0% q/q saar). On net, today's retail sales data and our reaction boosts our tracker for PCEby 0.3pp, and for GDP by 0.2pp.Effectsof the weaker-than-anticipated incoming April controlgroup estimate were more thanoffsetby a 0.1pp upward revision to March's %m/m estimateand stronger incoming estimates for food services. Even with this upward revision, PCE wouldbe poised for deceleration from the Q1 print, which had shown an increase of 1.8% q/qsaar. Following retail sales we updated our tracker for April's PPI estimates, which provided nochange to our headline GDP tracker leaving it at 1.2% q/q saar, but did haveoffsettingmoves incomponent trackers. PeriodQ2 GDP trackingQ21.0Apr1.2Apr1.25 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Pooja Sriram, Jonathan Millar, Colin Johanson and Marc Giannoni, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accuratelyreflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensationwas, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date p