E.ON（EOAN GR）买入评级：监管催化剂应释放增长潜力

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(EUR)17.70SHARE PRICE(EUR)15.23(as of15 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(EURm)40,227Market cap (USDm)45,0103m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(EUR)Year to12/2024aHSBC EPS1.09HSBC EPS (prev)1.09Change (%)0.0Consensus EPS1.12PE (x)13.9Dividend yield (%)3.6EV/EBITDA (x)9.7ROE (%)17.952-WEEK PRICE(EUR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesMeike Becker*Head of European Utilities &RenewablesHSBC Bank plcmeike.becker@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6441Charles Swabey*Analyst, European Utilities & RenewablesHSBC Bank plccharles.swabey@hsbc.com+44 20 3268 3954Kartik Chourasiya*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesMulti-UtilitiesGermany05/2411/24Target price: 17.70 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(EUR)16.40UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+16.2%Free floatBBG0RIC12/2025eHigh: 15.78 Low: 10.50 Current: 15.23 Find out more80%EOAN GREONGn.DE12/2026e12/2027e1.131.091.291.131.091.29-0.10.00.01.131.071.2313.514.011.83.84.04.29.09.28.115.914.315.79.5014.2519.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025eProfit & loss summary(EURm)Revenue80,11982,523EBITDA9,0499,690Depreciation & amortisation-3,288-3,542Operating profit/EBIT5,7616,148Net interest-1,140-1,348PBT4,6214,800HSBC PBT4,6214,800Taxation-1,156-1,211Net profit2,8562,954HSBC net profit2,8562,954Cash flow summary(EURm)Cash flow from operations5,6736,495Capex-6,971-8,155Cash flow from investment-6,626-8,155Dividends-1,705-1,515Change in net debt3,7563,175FCF equity-1,298-1,660Balance sheet summary(EURm)Intangible fixed assets20,28420,284Tangible fixedassets47,21251,825Current assets26,05426,054Cash & others7,2807,280Total assets111,361115,974Operating liabilities27,87227,872Gross debt39,06442,239Net debt31,78434,959Shareholders' funds17,84119,280Invested capital58,39863,011Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue-14.53.0EBITDA-3.47.1Operating profit-9.86.7PBT-12.93.9HSBC EPS-6.93.4Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.51.4ROIC7.97.6ROE17.915.9ROA3.13.2EBITDA margin11.311.7Operating profit margin7.27.5EBITDA/net interest (x)7.97.2Net debt/equity131.5136.5Net debt/EBITDA (x)3.53.6CF from operations/net debt17.818.6Per share data(EUR)EPS Rep (diluted)1.091.13HSBC EPS (diluted)1.091.13DPS0.550.58Book value6.837.38Financials & valuation:E.ON Source: Company data for guidance and consensus, HSBC estimates For more detailsBuy: Q1 2025 set to confirm growth with upside(05 May 2025)Buy: Top end of 2024 guidance likely(17 Feb 2025)Buy: Cost savings justify even higher returns and investments(15 Nov 2024)E.ON1Q25results highlightsWe summarise highlights from E.ON’s1Q25results and the following conference call.Full guidance confirmed after strong 1Q 2025, but not raised as rest of 2025 will absorbslight 1Q25 timing benefits:1Q 2025group adj.EBITDA at EUR3,226m was ahead ofexpectations(+3% HSBC and +4% vs consensus) driven bycapex-backed growth,strongexecutionand mild timing benefits.FY2025 net debt is expectedto beabove EUR44bn.E.ONconfirms full guidance for 2025e and 2028eandexpects2025 EBITDA of EUR9.6-9.8bn and2025 net income of EUR2.9-3.1bn, which is in line with expectations.Positive effects in1Q25include:(i)EUR50m from weather(which could normalise in 2Q25 with warmer April/May);(ii)delayed marketing costsversus 2024 (which are expected to catchup in rest of 2025);and(iii)continued strength in UK B2B(which is expected to roll off throughout 2025).Despite somehigh-margin contractsrollingoff in 2025, margins remain attractive relative to pre-crisis levels.We believe visibility on regulatory timelines in Germany has increased in 1Q25 and weconsider this a positive:The regulatory process for the2029+German electricity grid period isexpected to formally begin in the coming weeks, following a pre-consultation held in January.E.ON expects the followingupcoming timeline:◆Framework & methodology inthecoming weeks;◆cost of debt and equity methodology consultations within two to three months;◆clarity on ranges of capital returns by YE25;◆Utilities see capital returns of 8% RoE post tax as internationally competitive;◆Regarding cost benchmarking, where E.ON has historically performed well in comparison tosmaller less efficient peers, E.ON’s CFO notes that theprocesshasyet to be publishedand thatE.ONwouldexpect to perform well,givenits position as the largest DSO with scale benefitsRegarding concerns ofdisappointing outcomes on individual framework components such aslower cost outperformance,we notethe following:managementpreviously pointed outthatremuneration frameworksas a whole need to be attractive across the various components fromcapital returns to cost benchmarking.For the German regulatory review, we expect a fairoutcome in total,not a generous one: This might be higher capitalreturns but somewhat lowercost allowances; i