AI智能总结
Overall trend:In April, the cyclical recovery in China Automation continued. Commentsand results from FA companies, along with key indicators, showed that the impact oftariff disruptions was limited, and FA companies didn't see a meaningfully pull-forwarddemand. Despite near-term challenges, most FA companies see long-term opportunitiesrelated to deglobalization. By end industry, both the battery and automotive sectorsmaintained strong momentum, consumer electronics remained solid but likely peaked ingrowth rate last year, and the solar sector remained weak.AirTAC:In April, revenue grew 11% YoY and reached a record high for the secondconsecutive month in RMB terms (Exhibit 2). Shipments to the battery industry,automotive sector, and general machinery industries remained solid. Orders receivedcontinued to exceed shipment values, and unshipped orders also continued to increase.Inovance:Orders from the general automation business grew by high single digits,partially due to a high base and the impact of tariff disruptions. The battery and EVbusinesses maintained solid growth, the elevator business slightly declined, and thesolar sector remained weak. Inovance expects its smartphone business to remain flatthis year.Estun:In April, domestic orders increased 15% YoY, partially thanks to solid growth inautomotive, battery, and sheet-metal processing. Overseas orders slightly increased YoY.Xinje(not covered): Orders increased by more than 10% YoY. Demand from the textilesector remained soft, but orders from other sectors, such as packaging and printing,continued to recover.Yiheda(not covered): In April, shipments and new orders increased by approximately30% YoY, further accelerating from March (Exhibit 4). The battery business stronglyrecovered, but the solar business continued to decline, albeit at a slower rate. Theautomotive business maintained solid growth.www.bernsteinresearch.com DETAILSEXHIBIT 1:Monthly pulse check of China FA companiesData typeAirTACSales (yoy)Inovance(FA segment)Order (yoy)EstunOrder (yoy)XinjeOrder (yoy)Order (yoy)Shipment (yoy)YihedaNote: Xinje, and Yiheda are not covered by Bernstein. We used the growth rate comparison between the latest three months and the preceding three to six monthsas a measure of growth momentum.Source: Companies' comments, Bernstein estimates and analysisEXHIBIT 2:AirTAC's monthly revenue trend05001000150020002500300035004000Jan-14NTD (million)Source: AirTAC, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 3:AirTAC monthly revenue trend comparison05001000150020002500300035004000NTD (million)Source: AirTAC, Bernstein analysisASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSReiterate Outperform for AirTAC, Inovance; Market-Perform for Estun.ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRating1590.TT (AirTAC)O002747.CH (Estun)M300124.CH (Inovance)OASIAXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.ASIAN INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYAirTAC International GroupWe use EV/EBITDA multiple as the primary valuation method. We set a NTD1,060 target price using an EV/EBITDA multiple of15.0x against our 2026 EBITDA estimate of NTD 13,996mn. We set the multiple referencing previous cycles but adjust for secularor competitive trends that we believe are moving multiples higher or lower across multiple cycles. We use DCF as reference forthe company's long-term intrinsic value. As we move along the different stages of a cycle, the time-dependent target price maydeviate from the DCF-implied value.Estun Automation Co LtdWe use EV/EBITDA multiple as the primary valuation method. Our price target RMB 18.0 is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of33.0x against our 2026 EBITDA estimate of RMB533mn. We set the multiple referenci