收益率追踪报告第16期
Jefferies EMEA Real Estate * | Equity| jefferiesemearealestate@jefferies.comPierre-Emmanuel Clouard, CFA ^ | Equity+33 1 8665 6373 | pclouard@jefferies.comStephanie Dossmann ^ | Equity Analyst+33 1 8665 6367 | sdossmann@jefferies.comStephane Afonso ^ | Equity Analyst+33 1 8665 6327 | safonso@jefferies.com44 (0) 20 7029 8422 | mprew@jefferies.comSarim Chaudhry * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 5328 | schaudhry1@jefferies.comNIYvs.66522889-327912132-898024514616-3012892-70-9211373-2296891223236191161143162163113-26936110514145-2701410520147148281-2-7-4136-9994452181501499925710722023100-171173130-2-92122329878121583079119721068252-6310727-6469112921831982336254Equity ResearchMay 19, 2025 2015-112016-062017-012017-082018-032018-102019-052019-122020-072021-022021-09Average Implied yieldAverage NIY -0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%2022-042022-112023-062024-012024-082025-03 Research TeamAnalystMike Prew * | Equity Analyst Chart 2 - Yield changes seen last month.-10-100%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%AT - ViennaNL - AmsterdamNL - RotterdamSource: CBRE research, JefferiesWhat happened last month?Last month, yield compression was primarily concentrated in Offices, Hotels and Logistics,with yield tightening by 10 to 25bp. Geographically, the trend was most visible in Vienna, in themajor cities across the Netherlands, and in Italy. The latter saw yield compression in Logistics(-5bp) and in Student residences (-15p). In secondary markets, we also noted positive trendsin Denmark for Logistics (-10bp), Light Industrial (-10bp), and Student residences (-5bp). Allother prime markets remained stable over the period.Table 1 - Yield movement of last month.UKSource: CBRE researchWhich companies could be the most impacted by current yieldchanges?Last month, direct market yields remained virtually flat on average for the 52 companies thatwe monitor in this report. Yield compressions in Denmark, should have a positive effect onCATE (-4bp), and XIOR (-1bp), while being marginally positive on SHUR. URW, and VGP, shouldalso slightly gain from tightening yields in Czech offices and Italian Logistics, respectively.Please see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 24 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. NA Chart 3 - Estimated monthly yield change (bps).(4)(1)(0)(0)(0)--------------------------------------------(4)(4)(3)(3)(2)(2)(1)(1)-URWVGPAEDARGAT1BYGSource: Jefferies, CBRE researchSince the end of 2022, TAG (+166bp), ICAD (+162bp), and LEG (+158bp) have faced the highestyield expansion in their respective markets. The least impacted companies are CTP (+5bp),CATE (+19bp), and BBOX (+25bp).Last year, ICAD (+50bp), LEG (+33bp), and TAG (+28bp) should have experienced the highestyield increase. The least impacted companies last year were FABG (-17bp), COL (-16bp), andGFC (-16bp).Based on market yields in the YTD, MONT (-11bp), MRL (-8bp) and WDP (-8bp) should see thehighest yield compression in H1-25 appraisals. All other companies under coverage shouldnot experience any yield shift, so far.Chart 4 - Estimated yield change (bps).(11)(8)(8)(6)(5)(5)(5)(3)(3)(2)(2)(12)(10)(8)(6)(4)(2)-MRLWDPGPEECPCOVLISource: Jefferies, CBRE researchPlease see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 24 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. (2)(2)(2)(2)(1)(0)-------------------------------URWVGPCTPVNATAGGYCAT1WKPGFCCOLARGAGRPHPCRTAEDBYGLMPDLNGRISLPUTGESPWHR2025 YTD change Chart 5 - Monthly yield changes and estimated portfolio yields.(4)(3)(2)(1)-3.0%Monthly yield change (bps)Source: Jefferies, CBRE researchChart 6 - YTD yield changes and estimated portfolios yields.(12)(11)(10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)-3.0%YTD yield change (bps)Source: Jefferies, CBRE researchPlease see important disclosure information on pages 18 - 24 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. What's happening in the direct markets so far in 2025?Office -In the YTD, only offices in Hamburg experienced yield expansion (+20bp to 5.1%). Inparallel, there were 6 pockets of yield compression: Prague (-30bp to 5.2%), Valencia (-10bp to5.9%), Vienna (-15bp to 4.75%), Amsterdam (-10bp to 4.90%), Rotterdam (-20bp to 5.80%), andMilan (-10bp to 4.4%).Retail -In the YTD, there were 4 pockets of yield compression: Swedish regional shopping centres(-25bp to 7.25%), Madrid shopping centers (-25bp to 6.75%), Prague shopping centers (-35bp to6%), and Italian supermarkets (-10bp to 6.15%). All other prime markets were stable over theperiod.Residential -In the YTD, only French major regional cities experienced yield expansion (+10bpto 4.2%). Vienna saw 10pb yield compression to 4.5%, while all other prime markets were stable.Logistics -In the YTD, there was no yield expansion across European logistics markets. On thecontrary, Spain (Madrid -20bp to 5%), Italy (-15bp to 5.35%), Swedis
