太阳能市场不温不火，终端需求萎缩；价格持续下跌

Johnson Wan * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8083 | johnson.wan@jefferies.comAlan Lau * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1113 | alan.lau@jefferies.comRecently PublishedCSIQ:1Q25 In Line;Strong 2Q25Guidance;Cutting FY25 Vol AmidPolicy UncertaintyThe Big Beautiful (Draft) Bill: MoreScalpelthan Sledgehammer:FullTakesSolar: Prices Continued to Drop Post-Labor Day, with Demand NarrowingIntersolar Day 2 FeedbackIntersolar Europe Day 1 ConferenceFeedbackeVTOL is Vertically Taking Off; EHangPioneers UAM Future - Initiate withBUYSungrow:NDR call takeaways-Growth/GPMoutlook on Inverter/ESS, US mkt disruptionsDQ: 1Q25 NL continued; UTR low at33%; Liquid assets remained healthyat $2.15bJKS:1Q25 Gross Loss with lessUS shipment; aggressive ESS target;start buybackHZ First: 1Q25 In-line; Mgmt ExpectsGPM Recovery to Continue in 2025with Better MixSungrow: 4Q24/1Q25 Strong DoubleBeat; US Tariffs + ESS CompetitionRemain Key ConcernsSCEnergy:4Q24RMB886mnOne-off Cost;GPM toImprove with Higher Overseas MixeVTOL Expert Call Key Takeaways (2)- Comparison on Various Types ofeVTOLSolar:Prices Retreat along ValueChain despite China Install 20GW PVin Mar25FinalAD/CVDSupportive:NuancedTakes on Next Steps&Implications. BeatsAmidOur Solar glass(SG):Per SCI,3.2/2.0mm SG prices dropped to RMB21.5/13.5 per m2. SGproduction capacity stayed at99,990t/d.Inventory daysincreased by 1.48% WoW to 28.22d.Per SCI,SG GPMinApr'25improved by1.57 pctMoMto-0.87%, mainly with prices retreat fromNG, soda ash, etc., despite price of Potassium pyroantimonate hiked. Looking into May '25, SCIbelieves SG GPM might narrow, with SG prices retreat, due to narrowing demand.Recently PublishedCSIQ: 1Q25 In Line; Strong 2Q25 Guidance; Cutting FY25 Vol Amid Policy Uncertainty(HERE): CSIQ reported 1Q25 Rev/NP of USD1,197/(34)mn with GPM of 11.7% (vs 14.3/19% in 4Q24/1Q24). 1Q25 module/ESS shipment of 6.9GW/0.8GWh are above/in line with guidance. Coguided 2Q25 module/BESS shipment to rise to 7.5-8GW/2.4-2.6GWh. 2Q GPM guided to increase to 23-25%, with strong BESS shipment andc.6% impact from one-off item. With policy uncertainty, mgmt cut FY25 module/BESS shipment guidance to 25-30GW/7-9GWh. FEOC remainedthe key focus of earnings call.The Big Beautiful (Draft) Bill: More Scalpel than Sledgehammer: Full Takes(HERE):First Take on Budget Legislation Draft:(+) for Utility Solar(-) Nuclear (+/-) Resi solar (+/-) Hydrogen (+) Biofuels. This is clearly first innings with more negotiations/amendments expected.Solar: Prices Continued to Drop Post-Labor Day, with Demand Narrowing(HERE): SIA didn't update poly prices, with no transaction made lastweek. M10/G12 P-type/G10L/G12R/G12 N-type wafer prices were flat/flat/down/down/down WoW to RMB1.14/1.63/1.01/1.12/1.35 per pc. PerSolarZoom, M10/G12R TOPCon cell prices were down to RMB0.27/0.27 per W. M10 TOPCon modules prices were down WoW to RMB0.69 perW. Per SCI, 3.2/2.0mm SG prices dropped to RMB21.5-22/13.5-14 per m2.Intersolar Day 2 Feedback(HERE): Our Day 2 at Intersolar, we met with Wacker, SolarPower Europe, Sungrow, Memodo, Photon Energy, SMASolar, Jinko and Voltronic. Overall msg was similar to yesterday's (see here), with a challenging outlook for Resi (confirmed by installer anddistributors) despite invite appears gradually normalized, whereas Ute, in particular ESS is seeing solid demand (less so for PV). Inverter pricinghas been stable, with modules retracting following recent price increases.Intersolar Europe Day 1 Conference Feedback(HERE): Our Day 1 at Intersolar, we met Brunswick Group, Fraunhofer, Aurora Research, ABOEnergy, SolarEdge and Array Technologies. We see larger regional differences this year, with a slow moving recovery in European Resi and stillrobust utility demand, whereas the US is surrounded by policy uncertainty. Storage was a key focus in our discussions, with increasing demandfor grid balancing solutions. In addition, we are seeing more heated discussion on cybersecurity.eVTOL is Vertically Taking Off; EHang Pioneers UAM Future - Initiate with BUY(HERE): Low-altitude economy is vertical taking off in China, witheVTOL as an integral part in Urban Air Mobility (UAM) with TAM expected to reach >USD1.9T by 2050. Recent OC approval from CAAC marksthe acceleration of sector commercialization. We expect policy and technological catalysts to support development of the sector. EHang as theonly player in the world securing all approvals required should be the biggest beneficiary in the space. Initiate on EH with BUY.Sungrow: NDR call takeaways - Growth/GPM outlook on Inverter/ESS, US mkt disruptions(HERE): We hosted a call with Sungrow's mgmton 30th Apr. Mgmt shared growth outlook in Inverter/ESS business at 10/20-30%. GPM in 1Q25 stayed healthy while ESS GPM is expected tonormalize gradually to 20-30% in a couple of years as EMs scale. Sungrow is also establishing 10GWh of ESS capacity in SE Asia, along withramp up of battery supply chains outside of China, which can be ready as soon as 1Q25 (CATL in Indonesia and EVE