数组（ARRY）：从新视角看待太阳能估值跃升，维持买入评级

2024A2025E2026E2027E0.600.680.850.92173.6194.0237.0250.8915.81,117.11,308.91,411.6164.7189.0228.7243.5 Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.comDushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.comPaul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.comHannah Velasquez * | Equity Associate+1 (347) 982-6038 | hvelasquez@jefferies.comWhitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.comQudrat Qureshi * | Equity Associate(646) 530-5925 | qqureshi@jefferies.comBrian Russo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8559 | brusso@jefferies.comJamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2081 | jamieson.ward@jefferies.com The Long View: ArrayInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferARRY is a tracker manufacturer serving primarily the US utility scale solarmarket. The market has suffered delays but we expect to see successin adding backlog giving us renewed confidence in a relative bottomingin shares. While the long-term prospects for power, and specifically solar,continue to improve, industrial & data-demand should drive an acceleration inthe '27+ period in particular. While we see the sector suffering from a litany ofexecution-related issues, the intact balance sheet, and potentially improvingmarket share could support more visible recovery.Base Case,$10, +38%•Our $10 price target is based on an equal blendof DCF, EV/'26 EBITDA, and P/E valuation.•We expect gross margins (including 45X) at~29% in '25.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1. Risk Management:Company faced internal control issues post IPO.2. Materials Sourcing & Efficiency:Domestic sourcing is a major driver of tax credits and subsidies for itsend-customers seeking IRA-related tax credits. We see some degree of ambiguity in whether fasteners/clamps can fully qualify for 45X manufacturing tax credits and look for IRS affirmation of this treatment.Margin upside driver.Company Target(s):1.Increase total female workforce representation by 10% from baseline year 2021 by year-end 2025.2.Source 50% of direct energy consumption from renewable energy sources by year-end 2025.Qs to Mgmt:1.How do you think about continued backlog additions and the timing of realizing this back in '25? Whatsustainability conversations are you having with customers?2.How do you think about Utility-scale growth and timeline for orders as focus pivot to '26+. Is there arisk of deceleration if the sector is flattish?Please see important disclosure information on pages 13 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$15, +106%•Our $15 price target is based on a 1x premiumfor EBITDA multiple, 2x premium for P/E, and2pp disc to DCF.•We estimate '26 EBITDA / EPS to be ~50%above our base case of $237mn / $0.85 drivenfavorable ASPs if steel prices continue to trendhigher. Downside Scenario,$5, -31%•Our $5 price target is based on a 2x discount forEBITDA multiple, 2x discount for P/E, and 2ppprem to DCF.•We expect '25 EBITDA / EPS to be ~50% belowour base case driven by margin compression asArray lowers ASPs to maintain market share.Catalysts•Continued strong bookings in US•Clarity on tariffs/IRA.•Tracking system market share trends.•Maintaining margin profile adds further upsidevs JEFe 2 The Valuation Debate in a NutshellAs we seek to transition out of world where valuations are muddied by IRA uncertainty we look atthe potential for ARRY vs. a wider peer set of larger industrial comps. While clearly not equivalentto the higher quality and maturity of larger cap peers, it is important to put perspective of just howdiscounted renewable energy equities had become of late - particularly considering they remainstructurally exposed to growing power demand thesis. We also see greater margin integrity thru thecycle without reductions in IRA subsidies.Many have pinged us asking if this is an over-reaction? We cannot stress how acutely discountedthe sector had become - the move higher is more of a reflection in the sector integrity rather than astatement on estimates necessarily. We believe there will be a need to show progress on originationtrends but this is unlikely by 2Q. Still tariff discussions will disintermediate as well as still lingeringresolution in Senate. 3Q will become the critical quarter to show progress in some form we suspect.We acknowledge the 2026 frictions on follow-thru will be increasingly the focus by then as well.The core question on 2027 and beyond will be extent of developers flagging datacenter progressfor origination growth as well as minimizing the other sources of friction such as tariffs/FEOC-constraints, which could still yet stymie the sectors cadence of recovery even with formal IRAextension in hand. The tariff piece remains relatively transparent, while providing clarity on exactlyhow FEOC would be implemented (under a protracted IRS guidance process) is another emerg