以星航运（ZIM）：第二季度将呈现两极分化的态势

2024A2025E17.842.641.0x7.0x3,691.01,981.51.3x2.4x 2026E2027E1.553.2911.9x5.6x1,669.01,633.92.8x2.9x Omar Nokta * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8405 | onokta@jefferies.comJaeyoung McGarry * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8358 | jmcgarry@jefferies.comEmily Harkins * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8584 | eharkins@jefferies.com The Long View: ZIMInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe believe the container fleet balance has tightened considerably due toongoing re-routing of ships away from the Red Sea, and freight rates are likelyto be supported at above breakeven levels in the coming months. However,a cease-fire in Gaza sets the stage for an eventual return of normal transitsthrough the Red Sea which would lead to an influx of vessel capacity due toshorter voyage hauls. Accordingly, we see downside risks to freight rates fromthe extraordinary figures seen in 2024.Base Case,$17, -7%•A continued divergence of the majority of RedSea container shipping traffic around the Capeof Good Hope through the first half of 2025•A gradual return of vessel capacity to the RedSea during the second half of 2025•Freight rates to remain above breakevenlevels throughout the first half of 2025 beforemoderatingcloser to operating cost levelsduring the second half of 2025•2025 EBITDA amounts to $2.0 billion•Valuation of $17 using 2.5x 2025 EV/EBITDA,consistent with average multiple over past 2yearsSustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Ecological Impacts:As part of managing its environmental impact, ZIM makesconcerted efforts to reduce energy, water, chemical and fuel consumption on board all of its vessels, aswell as in its offices worldwide. Measures taken to prevent pollution and a negative environmental impactfrom vessel operations include, among others, practicing control and managing vessels’ biofouling by hullcleaning. These actions help minimize the transfer of non-indigenous aquatic species, strict avoidanceof oil and toxic chemical discharges into the sea, and regular monitoring of exhaust fumes to avoiddischarging black smoke from ship funnels.Company target(s): 1)To achieve a 50% reduction in its fleet’s average carbon dioxide emissions by2050 compared to 2008, as set by the “Getting to Zero Coalition”2)To improve the fleet’s averageenvironmental carbon dioxide emissions per TEU each year by 2%.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How do you balance the economic balance of operating larger ships, a large fleet sizeoverall and a goal of reducing emissions per TEU?Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$25, +36%•Liners re-route ships away from Red Seathroughout 2025•Freight rates in 2025 average in-line with 2024averages•2025 EBITDA potential jumps to $3.5 billion•Valuation of $25 using 2.5x 2025 upside EV/EBITDA, consistent with average multiple overpast 2 years Downside Scenario,$11, -40%•Liners return ships to Red Sea in near-term•Freight rates fall to below operating breakeven•2025 EBITDA amounts to $1.0 billion•Valuation of $11 using 4.0x 2025 EV/EBITDA,assuming higher multiple due to lower potentialearningsCatalysts•Moderation in operating costs•Increase in freight rates•Dividends•M&A activity•Announcement of new contracts 2 Exhibit 1 - ZIM Realized Freight Rate ($ / TEU).$2,781$3,230$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,50020212022Source: Company financials, Jefferies LLCExhibit 3 - ZIM Lease Costs + Charter Costs ($ / TEU).$516$710$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$90020212022Source: Company financials, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 5 - ZIM EBITDA (in millions).$6,598$7,541$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,00020212022Source: Company financials, Jefferies LLCExhibit 6 - ZIM Operating Income (in millions).$5,820$6,146-$1,000$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,0002021Source: Company financials, Jefferies LLCExhibit 7 - ZIM Net Income (in millions).$4,645$4,625-$1,000$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,0002021Source: Company financials, Jefferies LLCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 11 - ZIM Income Statement.REVENUES:Net revenuesOPERATING EXPENSES:Cargo handling expensesSlots purchase and vessel hireBunker expensesPort expensesCommissionsDepreciation & amortizationGeneral & administrativeOtherTotal operating expensesOPERATING INCOMEOTHER INCOME (EXPENSE):Interest incomeInterest expenseEquity incomeTaxesOtherNet other expenseNet IncomeBasic earnings per common share:Diluted earnings per common share:Diluted EPS from continuous operations:Weighted average shares outstanding-basicWeighted average shares outstanding-dilutedEBITDAAdjusted EBITSource: Company filings, Jefferies LLCExhibit