unibail-rodamco-westfield（urw）：cmd会议后更新预测

Restricted - External URW.PA/URW FPOVERWEIGHTUnchangedEuropean Real EstateNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetEUR 110.00raised 10% from EUR 100.00Price (19-May-25)EUR 78.26Potential Upside/Downside+40.6%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (EUR mn)11205Shares Outstanding (mn)240.29Free Float (%)93.2452 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.3Dividend Yield (%)4.47Return on Equity TTM (%)0.94Current BVPS (EUR)108.46Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-PA52 Week rangeEUR 80.31-59.12Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean Real EstatePaul May, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 1444paul.j.may@barclays.comBarclays, UKEleanor Frew, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 0748eleanor.frew@barclays.comBarclays, UKKanad Mitra+91 (0)22 6175 1793kanad.mitra@barclays.comBarclays, UK Changes to forecasts:FIGURE 1. Changes to EPS estimatesAdj. EPRA EPSNew Valuation MethodologyWe use a Total Accounting Return valuation methodology to arrive at an equity value per shareof EUR 110.0. TAR is the spread of Forecast TAR [(NTA/shr Yr+1 + DPS)-(NTA/shr Yr)] vs. therequired ROE [% cost of equity x NTA/shr] in each forecast year. We also calculate a justifiedterminal book value (BV) multiple and apply this to the terminal BV to account for future TARbeyond the forecast horizon. We discount these values by the cost of equity and add them tothe last FY reported NTA/shr. We use a cost of equity of 8.9% which includes an ESG adjustmentof -0.3%. We forecast LFL valuation change of 5.3%, LFL rental change of 10.9%, totaldevelopment spend of EUR 2,057.8m and total net investment of EUR -2,200.0m over the nextfive years.Key risks to our OW ratingThe risks to our forecasts for Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield relate to our LFL property andinternal/external growth assumptions. Downside risk would come if we are too optimistic overthe group's property portfolio and growth potential or economic conditions deterioratematerially. These scenarios could mean yields do not compress as much as we expect (or evenexpand) and ERVs and LFL rental growth decrease as opposed to increase as we expect. Thiswould drive declines in our NTA, EPS and DPS forecasts. A higher discount rate would alsodecrease our PT. 4 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Kanad Mitra, Paul May, CFA and Eleanor Frew, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personalviews about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will bedirectly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access B