几内亚铝土矿最新情况

Shuhang Jiang * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1137 | shuhang.jiang@jefferies.comJohnson Wan * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8083 | johnson.wan@jefferies.com Figure 1 - Guinea bauxite spot price.405060708090100110120Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22USD/tSource: SMM, JefferiesFigure 3 - China monthly bauxite production.-12345678910Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22mtChina bauxite productionSource: SMM, JefferiesFigure 5 - China weekly bauxite arrival.-123456(mt)Source: SMM, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 8 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Wind, JefferiesFigure 4 - China monthly bauxite import.05101520252021-012021-042021-072021-10(mt)Source: China customs, JefferiesFigure 6 - Guinea weekly bauxite shipment.-12345(mt)Source: SMM, Jefferies Company Valuation/RisksAluminum Corporation of China LimitedOur price target for Chalco-A is based on 2025E EPS of RMB 0.8 and 11x PE. Our H-share price target is derived from average A/H premiumof 60%. Under our base case, 2025 aluminum and alumina price assumptions are RMB 20,345/t and RMB 3,150/t, respectively. Risks includelower-than-expected downstream demand and lower-than-expected commodity prices.China Hongqiao Group Co., Ltd.Our price target is based on 2025E EPS of Rmb2.2 and target PE of 7.5x. Under our base case, aluminum and alumina prices are RMB 20,259/tand RMB 3,500/t, respectively. Risks include lower-than-expected downstream demand and lower-than-expected aluminum/ alumina prices.Analyst Certification:I, Shuhang Jiang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Johnson Wan, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Shuhang Jiang is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Johnson Wan is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or morewithin a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average securityprice consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperformrated securities with an average security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less withina 12-month period.NR - The investment rating and price target ha