更新趋势科技、大冢、Bay Current、IIJ相关情况

Hiroko Sato * | Equity Analyst813 5251 6185 | hsato@jefferies.comKen Oiwa, CFA * | Equity Analyst+813 5251 6126 | koiwa@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies estimates, FactSet(5/20/2025 closingprice) Summary of ChangesCompanyOtsuka4768 JPPreviousTrend Micro4704 JPPreviousBayCurrent6532 JPPreviousInternet Initiative Japan3774 JPPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Cons. EPS: Cons. Source: FactsetEPS: From 4/1/2024, 2-for-1 splitCons. Rev. (B): Cons. Source: FactsetRev. (B): Trend Micro - All Figures for FY12/23 and FY12/24 are actual figuresPlease see important disclosure information on pages 23 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY¥2,884HOLD¥10,860BUY¥7,986HOLD¥2,617 BayCurrent (6532 JP, Buy, PT ¥9,300 from PT¥7,400 )Bay Current Valuation- We are raising the PT to ¥9,300 from ¥7,400 and continue to maintainour bullish view and keep our Buy rating. The revised PT equates to P/E 37.7x based on this FYEPS ¥246.5 and P/E 30.4x based on FY2/27 EPS ¥305.8. We continue to position the stock ata premium to the IT service sector. BC maintains minimum 20% top-line growth and keeps itsEBITDA margins in the 30-40% range.Risk is the exposure to automobile companies. In total, they have 11% revenue exposure, andone of their big size clients is Nissan. We already know that they have a risk due to reciprocaltariffs and also may face budget cuts from Nissan, as they just announced the lay-off of 20,000people across the globe. However, BC also has a track record of recovering quickly from losingRakuten and Pfizer projects in the past. (Fill in gap in about 1 quarter).BC-Earnings Update: We have updated our earnings estimates in Table 1. We are forecasting FYsales estimate of ¥143.1bn (+23.3% yoy, cons ¥144.8bn, Company ¥143.0bn), OP estimate of¥51.4bn (+20.7% yoy, cons ¥52.1bn, Company ¥51.0bn), EBITDA of ¥52.2bn (+20.1% yoy, cons¥53.6bn, Company ¥52.0bn) and EPS estimate of ¥246.5 (Cons ¥251.34, co. ¥245.7). EBITDAmargin estimates for FY2/26 is 36.5% (FY2/25 was 37.5%).For Q1 utilization, we estimate 84% yoy. BC will be focusing on hiring from Q1 this FY or 100 mid-career hires/month. Also, BC is not giving out discount pricing from last FY; as a result, we areexpecting unit price improvements from Q1. BC will be sponsoring the Men's PGA tournamentfrom this FY, so we are expecting the margins to come down in Q3. Our quarterly earningsestimates are also in Table 1.We have written 2 detail memos since they reported their earnings, details of which arehere(earnings comments) andhere(CFO meeting takeaways)Figure 1 - BC - JEFe vs. Consensus.Actual(¥mn)FY2/24FY2/25Sales93,909116,056OP34,21942,615NP25,38230,760EBITDA35,31243,489EPS (¥)166.04202.17DPS (¥)50.0062.00YoY (%)SalesOPNPEBITDAEPS (¥)DPS (¥)Source: Jefferies estimates, Company, FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 23 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Jef EConsensus as of 05/19/2025GuidanceFY2/26FY2/27FY2/28FY2/26FY2/27FY2/28FY2/26143,097175,722217,523144,755175,561213,524143,00051,42763,63179,96452,12763,55178,37937,39346,26758,14238,16946,51957,27052,22764,23180,36453,57565,35879,722246.49305.84385.69251.34306.66377.0475.5993.79118.2893.33110.15144.24-23.3%22.8%23.8%54.1%21.3%21.6%-20.7%23.7%25.7%52.3%21.9%23.3%-21.6%23.7%25.7%50.4%21.9%23.1%-20.1%23.0%25.1%51.7%22.0%22.0%-21.9%24.1%26.1%51.4%22.0%22.9%-21.9%24.1%26.1%86.7%18.0%30.9% Guidance51,00037,30052,00024610052.3%49.0%47.0%47.3%48.0% BC -FinancialsTable 1 - BC - P/L Estimates.BayCurrent Consulting - P/L(¥mn)RevenueYoYGross ProfitYoYMarginSG&AYoY% of salesOPYoYMarginNPYoYNPMEPS (¥)DPS (¥)Payout ratioEBITDAYoYMarginSource: Jefferies Estimates, CompanyPlease see important disclosure information on pages 23 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. IIJ (3774 JP, Hold, PT ¥3,000 from ¥2,880)IIJ - Valuation:We are raising IIJ's PT to ¥3,000 from ¥2,880 which equates to P/E 22.5x basedon FY3/26 EPS ¥133.3, but we maintain our Hold, since we don't have more than 15% share priceupsides to our PT due to the recent stock price increase. IIJ will likely be facing low OP hurdlesduring H1FY3/26 because of the VMware impact from H1FY3/25, but it should have high salesyoy comp due to the big size projects last FY. We continue to position the stock near the sectoraverage but with a slight discount at P/E22.5x. IIJ facing easier comps, we think, is partially pricedin. Also, FY3/26 company guidance, we think, is realistic and not conservative.IIJ Earnings Updates-Based on company guidance, we have updated our FY3/26 estimates andbeyond. See Table 4 and Table 5. Key assumptions we are making for FY3/26 earnings are:•SI segment - H1 OP hurdles should be low due to the VMware impact from H1 FY3/25,but from Sales, this segment is facing a tough comp