斗鱼（DOYU）：转型进行中

2023A5,530.0154.0 2024A2025E2026E4,271.03,861.03,977.0(240.0)0.026.0 Thomas Chong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8016 | thomas.chong@jefferies.comZoey Zong * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8163 | zoey.zong@jefferies.com The Long View: DouYuInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•As a leading game-broadcasting platform in China, the Douyu brand iswell-known and, as such, in our view, it is able to create a viral effectamong its large gamer base and pool of broadcasters.•It has multiple monetization models, game and non-game broadcasting,with the former sustaining the fastest revenue growth in the industry.Base Case,$7.50, +9%•Douyu is a leading game-broadcastingplatformin China,supported by strategicinvestor Tencent.•It was founded in 2014 with over 280mregisteredusers and 6m streamers asof2019.Douyu is renowned for itspool of top broadcasters, with over 6,000exclusive streamers and over 700 streamerscommanding over 1m viewers each.•It has generated a vibrant ecosystem forusers, broadcasters and e-Sports partners.•PT of US$7.5 based on DCF valuation.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Customer Privacy:companies use customer data to innovate and providecustomers with new products and services and to generate revenues. On the other hand, there areprivacy concerns associated with companies having access to a wide range of customer data, such aspersonal, demographic, content, and behavioral data.2) Employment:Employees are key contributorsto value creation in the industry and greater workforce diversity is important for innovation.Company Target(s): 1)Ensure effective, comprehensive protection of users’ privacy.2)Attract andretain high-quality employees in a diverse, equal, and inclusive working environmentQs to Mgmt: 1)What are you investing in to protect users’ data?2)What’s the trend for operatingexpenses in future years?Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$8.10, +18%•Content costs are lower than expected onmore controlled competition.•Faster-than-expected user growth.•PT of US$8.1 based on DCF valuation. Downside Scenario,$4.75, -31%•Content costs are higher than expected onfierce competition with popular broadcasters.•New entrants in overseas game broadcastingmarket with more capital resources.•Stringent regulations in game broadcasting.•PT of US$4.75 based on DCF valuation.Catalysts•Stronger-than-expected margins.•Successful acquisition and retention of topgame live-streaming hosts.•Earlier-than-expected benefits from overseasexpansion. 2 Exhibit 1 - DOYU US: Income Statement.Income Statement (DOYU US)RMBmnTotal RevenueYoY % changeCost of revenueGross profitGross marginSales and marketing expenseGeneral and administrative expenseResearch and development expenseOperating ProfitYoY % changeOperating marginNon-GAAP operating profitYoY % changeNon-GAAP operating marginNet Income (ex-convertible preferred shares)YoY % changeNet marginNon-GAAP net income (ex-convertible preferred shares)YoY % changeNon-GAAP net marginSource: Company, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 2 - DOYU US: Balance Sheet.Balance Sheet (DOYU US)RMBmnCash and cash equivalentsRestricted cashShort term bank depositsAccounts receivable, netPrepaymentsAmounts due from related partiesOther current assetsTotal current assetsProperty and equipment, netIntangible assets, netInvestmentsGoodwillRight-of-use assetsOther non-current assetsTotal non-current assetsTotal assetsAccount payableAdvances from customersDeferred revenueAccrued expense and other current liabilitiesAmonts due to related partiesTotal current liabilitiesTotal non-currnet liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesConvertible redeemable preferred sharesOrdinary sharesAdditional paid-in capitalAccumulated deficitAccumulated other comprehensive incomeNon-controlling interestTotal shareholder's equityTotal liabilities and equitySource: Company, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 3 - DOYU US: Balance Sheet.Cash Flow Statement (DOYU US)RMBmnNet incomeOperating cash flowInvesting cash flowFinancing cash flowEffect of foreign exchange rateNet increase in cash and cash equivalentsCash and cash equivalent at the beginning of the yearCash and cash equivalent at the end of the yearSource: Company, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. We would like to thank Fiona Fan, employee of Evalueserve Inc., for providing research support services to our preparation of this report.We would like to thank Han Wang, employee of Evalueserve Inc., for providing research support services to our preparation of this report.Company DescriptionDouYuDouYu International Holdings Limi