模型更新——仍存在一些不确定性，但估值极具吸引力不容忽视

2024A2025E2026E2,416.02,480.02,654.02,416.02,493.02,671.06.406.256.816.406.256.63 2027E2,973.03,001.07.797.41 Surinder Thind, CFA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1515 | sthind@jefferies.comLogan Schuh * | Equity Associate+1 (201) 685-6981 | lschuh@jefferies.comColton Feldmann, CPA * | Equity Associate(312) 588-5523 | cfeldmann@jefferies.comRelated Research:1Q25 First Take—More Questions thanAnswers (5/15/2025)IT Services—Tariff Playbook and 1Q25Preview (4/8/2025)4Q24 Follow-up—Steep Correction Makesfor Historically Attractive Entry Point(2/26/2025) The Long View: GlobantInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferGLOB's track record of successfully implementing large and complex digitaltransformation and custom software projects is a competitive advantage thatwill permit the company to grow at a significantly faster pace than peers forthe foreseeable future. Strategic acquisitions will continue to add to the topline at a 3-5% annual pace. Margins are likely to remain range-bound as mgmtredirects all excess profits towards expanding the business. A decline in USeconomic activity remains the primary risk.Base Case,$125, +22%2025 Outlook•Economic growth muted•Flat organic revenue growth•LSD inorganic contribution•Adj operating margins flat to modestly up y/y•Stable pricing power,manageable wageinflation, and higher utilization.•Price target: $125 (= 2025E Adj EPS $6.25, P/Eratio 20x).Sustainability MattersTop material issues: 1) Employee Engagement, Diversity, and Inclusion.IT Services is a human-capital-driven business. With over 29,000 employees globally, the challenge of promoting and maintainingequality, opportunity, and respect for everyone is significant.2)Systematic Risk Management.GLOBdesigns, builds, and implements critical business systems for clients and has access to their networks.Ensuring the security of this infrastructure is critical to protecting the company’s reputation andeconomic exposure.Company targets: 1)Committed to 50% of managerial positions held by women and non-binary people by20252)Reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions by 87% per employee by 20303)Save 10 million tonsof CO2-eq by 2030 by supporting clients with “digital sobriety” techniques while designing their digitalservices and products.Questions for management:1)What is the net near-term impact on profitability from pursuing ESGtargets?2)Status of the cybersecurity breach of GLOB’s network in March, 2022?Published Research:ESG Sector Deep Dive: US Software, IT Services & PaymentsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$175, +70%2025 Outlook•Tariffs reversed•Mid to High-single-digit organic growth•Inorganic contribution MSD or higher•Adj operating margin >50 bps y/y•Stable pricing power & utilization, limited wageinflation•Stable geopolitical environment in LatAm•Price target: $175 (= 2025E Adj EPS $7.00, P/Eratio 25x) Downside Scenario,$70, -32%2025 Outlook•Recession•Organic revenue growth negative•No additional acquisitions•Adj operating margins contract >50 bps y/y•Pricing power deteriorates,wage inflationincreases•Utilization declines•Geopolitical instability in LatAm•Price target: $70 (Adj EPS $5.62, P/E ratio 12.5x)Catalysts[+] Large new portfolio contract wins[+] Large-scale, non-dilutive M&A[+] Operating efficiency initiatives[+/-] Economic acceleration or downturn[+/-] Wage inflation, employee turnover[+/-] Fee rate or utilization meaningfully change[-] Project cancellations, loss of a large client 2 Guidance & Estimate Updates2025 Guidance and Outlook2025 revenues are now expected to total at least $2,464M, which was well below our estimates andconsensus (JEFe: $2,611M, Consensus: $2,629M) and reflects approx flat y/y growth on an organiccc basis (+2.0% y/y reported). We note initial 2025 guidance assumed y/y organic growth of +8-11%y/y, vs our prior estimate of +7.2% y/y. The updated guide assumes an approx. +200 bps inorganiccontribution (vs. +250 bps previously) and neutral FX (vs. a headwind of -150 bps previously). Full-year 2025 guidance now calls for adj EPS of at least $6.10 (vs. $6.80-7.20 previously), which camein well below expectations (JEFe: $6.65, Consensus: $6.81) on adj operating margin guidance ofat least 15.0%, which similarly fell below expectations (JEFe: 16.2%, Consensus: 16.0%) and priorguidance of 15.5-16.5%.For 2025, we have lowered our revenue estimate from $2,611M to $2,480M, consistent with mgmtguidance. Of note, we now expect flat to modestly positive organic growth (vs. our prior estimate of+7.2% y/y). On profitability, we are expecting adj operating margin of 15.5% (vs. 16.2% previously)and full-year adj EPS of $6.25 (down from $6.65 previously). See Exhibit 1 for details.2Q25 Guidance and OutlookFor 2Q25, revenue guidance of at least $612M also came in well below expectations ($645M,Consensus: $641M), as mgmt expects a continuation of the demand tre