technipfmc约130亿美元的估值困境：聚焦2028年

F25EF26E14.412.914.412.921 May 202529.8832.0033.45/22.125,844.61Dec0.7%12,52713,2956M12M(3.1)17.7(1.8)(1.3)05/255000550060006500 08/24 RatingMarket-Perform(OutperformOLD)Price TargetFTI32.00 USDAdjusted EPSF24AF25EF26EFTI (USD)1.832.082.31OLD--2.042.27Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Reassessment.We downgrade TechnipFMC (FTI) to MP (vs O) with a reduced DCF-basedPT of $32 (vs $33), as the industry as a whole began reassessing its own prospects in April2025. Based on our discussions with industry players (there are still only little datapoints),this reassessment could last 6-9 months and potentially translate into:1) reduced capex forshort-term barrels, 2) a possible normalisation in subsea prospects by 2028 (lower results+ less FIDs), 3) a possible re-acceleration of LNG projects post 2H25 and 4) a possible re-acceleration of new energy projects by 2H25-1H26.Subsea — All eyes on 2028.With breakeven prices of c.$30/bbl and visible prospects for2025-27 (in Brazil and Guyana), the subsea segment could remain largely unaffected bythe current reassessment over 2025-27. However, we note that: 1) our 2027-28 EBITDAestimates for FTI remain -5%/-11% below consensus, and 2) we would remain prudentregarding Suriname and Namibia (except for their flagship GrandMorgu and Venus projects).This suggests a possible plateau in subsea spendingby 2028.The c.$13bn valuation dilemma (1) — The prudent geographical approach.FTI’s marketcap is now $12.5bn (c.$13bn EV), a level not seen since 2013-14. Its EV is now 3x Saipem’s(vs a 2019-25 average of 1.88x). This is not cheap, assuming a possible 2028 slowdown —hence our continued preference for less sophisticated European players.The c.$13bn valuation dilemma (2) — The optimistic historical approach.Optimistscould (we believe, rightly) claim that FTI is unique — and that TechnipFMC is more unique in2025 than FMC Technologies was in 2012-13. While the company’s market cap ($13bn) andROCE (>17%) are similar to what they were back then, the stock is nonetheless trading at a7.4x EV/EBITDA i.e. c.35% below the previous 2013 peak multiple of c.12x EV/EBITDA).Investment ImplicationsOn the one hand, FTI now appears more expensive vis-à-vis its lower-quality European peers.On the other hand, it still appears ’cheap’ versus its own historical peak, especially as weview FTI today (TechnipFMC) as being an even higher-quality company than it was back in2012-13 (as FMC Technologies). While the industry structure — now a near duopoly — isalso more favourable, we believe that a pause is now needed. In other words, we will waitfor the end of the ongoing industry reassessment period (6-9 month?) before reviewing ourinvestment case again.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 22 May 2025 11:28 UTC Completion Date: 22 May 2025 11:28 UTC Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$36$34$32$30$28$26$2405/24 (33.00OLD) VALUATION COMPS TABLEEXHIBIT 1:Energy Services coverage - Valuation tableAdnoc DrillingAED5.276.70Adnoc L&SAED4.506.64ViridienEUR56.0552.00GTTEUR159.90175.00SaipemEUR2.103.54SBM OffshoreEUR19.0624.00SLBUSD33.8763.00Subsea 7NOK167.40231.00Technip EnergiesEUR32.1835.00Technip FMCUSD29.8833.00ValuationCurrencyShare pricePTPricing date 21 May 2025 closeSource: Bernstein analysis & estimatesNEW PT OF $32 (VS $33)Our new PT of $32 (vs $33bn) is based on a DCF approach. This minor change is the result of three factors: 1) the roll-over ofour DCF (with 2026 being now the first year being discounted), 2) lower post 2028-30 EBITDA/Cash flow estimates and 3)unchanged parameters (8.1% WACC, $695m FCF to perpetuity, 3.5% LT growth).REPORTS ON TECHNIPFMC5 November 2024: Inflection point (duopoly, ROCE)25 July 2024: Step change in margin for the subsea industry24 April 2024: No.1 in the subsea market22 March 2024: A simpler equity story8 November 2023: Capacity booked until 2025-2616 November 2017: TechnipFMC - From A to ZGLOBAL OIL SERVICES Table Of ContentsReassessment — The global Oil Services sector at the end of May 2025.......................................................................................................... 4The subsea segment appears well protected over 2025-27.................................................................................................................................. 6$10bn new subsea awards in 2025 — and also $10bn in 2026?................................................................................................................. 6Brasil Para Sempre?........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6The leading indicator — FPSO awards.....................................................