西班牙经济 来自中央银行的深刻见解

Inigo Vega * | Equity Analyst+34 910769995 | ivega@jefferies.comMiruna Chirea ^ | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7029 8336 | mchirea@jefferies.comp.a. growth rate over selected periods.EUSource: Bank of Spain Annual Report 2024Exhibit 2 - Comparison between accumulatedreal wage growth for youngsters versusincrease in house prices and renting costsover 2015 - 2023.0%5%10%15%20%25%Source: Bank of Spain Annual Report 2024Exhibit 3 - New households created versusnew housing starts (lagged 2 years)Number, '000.0100200300400500600700800900Source: INE, Ministerio de Vivienda y Agenda Urbana Exhibit 4 - Total Factor Productivity in Spain versus the EU, Germany and Francep.a. growth rate over selected periods.Source: Bank of Spain Annual Report 2024Exhibit 5 - New households created versus new housing starts (lagged 2 years)Number, '000.0100200300400500600700800900Source: INE, Ministerio de Vivienda y Agenda UrbanaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 8 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 6 - Comparison between accumulated wage growth for youngsters versus increase in house pricesand renting costs over 2015 - 2023.0%5%10%15%20%25%Source: Bank of Spain Annual Report 2024Growth in residential real estate prices between 2014 and 2024 by autonomous communities%.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Source: Bank of Spain Annual Report 2024Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 8 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Analyst Certification:I, Inigo Vega, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Miruna Chirea, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Inigo Vega is employed by Jefferies GmbH, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a researchanalyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject to the FINRARule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Miruna Chirea is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, butvarious regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are publishedat irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security price consistentlybelow $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform rated securities with anaverage security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less within a 12-month period.NR - The investme