《通胀削减法案（IRA）重击再次来袭。尚未构成致命一击，等待参议院救援》

Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.comPaul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.comDushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.comHannah Velasquez * | Equity Associate+1 (347) 982-6038 | hvelasquez@jefferies.comWhitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.comQudrat Qureshi * | Equity Associate(646) 530-5925 | qqureshi@jefferies.comSpark Li * | Equity Associate+1 (713) 308-4573 (office) | sli8@jefferies.comExpect shares of solar companies to takea significant step back. Expect resi solarto be uniquely impacted following scathingexclusion. We don't expect this to last intoSenate draft - but expect shares of RUN,SEDG and ENPH to be under pressure. Losingthe now false sense of security that wehad 'seen the worst' of it with the initialHouse draft mutes the compounding follow-thru many had bought renewable equities onlast week. Expect domestic plays like FSLRto outperform on even heavier language onFEOC thru the latest draft too vs pullbackacross wider sector. May still need to waitweeks for Senate draft leaving sector 'adrift'in the interim. Company Valuation/RisksEnphase Energy, Inc.Valuation:Our price target is based on a 50/50 blended average of DCF- and FY25 EV/EBITDA multiple-based valuation.Upside risks:(+) core upsidetied to ratcheting up domestic contents requirement; (+) upcoming product launches prove more competitive than anticipated; (+) margins continueto expand (+) positive IRA outcome.First Solar IncorporatedOur price target is derived from equal weight of DCF, EV/EBITDA, and P/E, ex-45X and then we add the PV of 45X credits to determine the final PT.Key risks include interconnection delays, higher-for-longer interest rates, and capacity timeline.SolarEdge Technologies Inc.Valuation:Our price target is based on our blended EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and DCF.Upside risks:accelerated inventory destocking in Europe, declininginterest rates, and higher utility rates in certain regions (e.g., Texas, Continental Europe).Sunrun IncorporatedOur price target is based on a Sum of the Parts approach in which we use a discount cash flow analysis to value operating assets, future assetsexpected to come online, and the Systems & Purchase business less corporate overhang. Key risks to our forecasts include: i) interest rateenvironment, ii) significant changes to IRA policy, and iii) slower recovery across broader US residential solar market.Analyst Certification:I, Julien Dumoulin-Smith, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Paul Zimbardo, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Dushyant Ailani, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Hannah Velasquez, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Whitney Mutalemwa, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Qudrat Qureshi, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Spark Li, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.As