ITC Limited：大致符合预期的业绩表现

2026E734,085259,492.616.9325.6x 2027E2028E787,228838,326281,025.4303,644.318.2819.7223.7x22.0x Vivek Maheshwari * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6135 | vmaheshwari@jefferies.comRushabh Bhachawat * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6114 | rbhachawat@jefferies.comRajesh Kumar, CFA * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6314 | rkumar18@jefferies.com The Long View: ITC LimitedInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferITC is seeing good momentum across businesses. Sustained volumerecoveryin cigarettes due to share gains from illicit cigarettes isencouraging.Base Case,INR535, +24%Inour base case,we forecast c.6%annualgrowth in Cigarette EBIT over FY25-28E andc.8% growth in FMCG revenues. We use SOTPmethodology to value the ITC cigarette businessat25x Mar-27E earnings,new FMCG at 5xMar-27E sales, Agri and paperboard businessesat 15x Mar-27E EPS, and value hotels based onsubsidiary valuation; we thus arrive at our pricetarget of Rs535.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):Packaging lifecycle management, GHG emissions, energy management,responsible sourcing, water management.Company Target(s): 1)Enhancing the share of renewable energy to 50% of total energy consumptionby 2030.2)Meeting 100% of purchased grid electricity requirements from renewable sources by2030.3)Achieving 40% reduction in specific water consumption by 2030 vs FY19.4)Creation ofrainwater harvesting potential equivalent to over 5 times net water consumption by 2030.5)Reducingspecific energy consumption by 30% and specific GHG emissions by 50% by 2030 vs FY19.6)100%of packaging to be Reusable, Recyclable, or Compostable/ Biodegradable by 2028.7)Supportingsustainable livelihoods for 10mn people by 2030.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What capex outlay do you envisage to achieve these ESG targets? Do you foresee anymargin implications, on either the positive or negative side?Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR580, +34%In our upside scenario, we forecast c.9% annualgrowth in cigarette EBIT over FY25-28E andc.10% growth in FMCG revenues. We use SOTPmethodology to value the ITC cigarette businessat25x Mar-27E earnings,new FMCG at 5xMar-27E sales, Agri and paperboard businessesat 17x Mar-27E EPS and hotels based on a highersubsidiary valuation to arrive at a price target ofRs580. Downside Scenario,INR390, -10%In our downside scenario, we forecast a 4%CAGRin Cigarette EBIT over FY25-28E andc.6% growth in FMCG revenues. We use SOTPmethodology to value the ITC cigarette businessat 19x Mar-27 earnings, new FMCG at 4x Mar-27sales, Agri and paperboard businesses at 10xMar-27 EPS, hotels based on a lower subsidiaryvaluation to arrive at a price target of Rs390.CatalystsUpside catalysts•Volume growth in cigarette business as ITCregains share from illicit trade•Margin expansion in new FMCG business, ledby cost optimisationDownside catalysts•Sharp rise in taxation — GST or NCCD•Certain set of ESG investors can no longerinvest in tobacco due to ESG focus 2 Exhibit 1 - ITC 4QFY25 standalone earnings summary.(Rs m)Net salesExpenditureEbitda% net revenuesOperating other incomeOp Ebitda% of operating incomeDepreciationEbit% of operating incomeInterestFinancialPBTTaxTax rate (%)PATExcpReported PATSource: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 2 - Breakdown of expenditure.(Rs m)Material% net revenuesStaff costs% net revenuesOther expenses% net revenuesTotal expenses% net revenuesSource: Company data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Revenue grew 9% YoY, broadly in-line withour estimatesMargins of FMCG and Paperboards were anegative surprise3 Exhibit 3 - Segment information.(Rs m)Gross revenues (Rs m)CigarettesNew FMCGAgri BusinessPaperboards, Paper & PackagingOthersTotal revenuesLess: Inter-segmentIncome from operationsSegmental Ebit (Rs m)CigarettesNew FMCGAgri BusinessPaperboards, Paper & PackagingOthersTotalUnallocable corporate expensesReported EbitEbit margin on gross revenues (%)CigarettesNew FMCGAgri BusinessPaperboards, Paper & PackagingOthersTotalSource: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 4 - Trend in cigarette volume growth.(20)(15)(10)(5)-510152025302QFY193QFY194QFY191QFY20(% YoY)Source: Company data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. SharpYoY EBIT decline in FMCG andPaperboardsCigarette volume growth of c.5% YoY was inline with our estimates4 Exhibit 5 - Trend in cigarette Ebit growth.(20)(10)-1020302QFY193QFY194QFY191QFY202QFY20Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 6 - Trend in FMCG-Other sales growth.(5)-5101520252QFY193QFY194QFY191QFY202QFY20Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 7 - Trend in FMCG-Other Ebit.-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002QFY193QFY194QFY191QFY