自由港麦克莫兰公司（FCX）：曼雅尔冶炼厂重启

1.481.481.72026E 1.6 2025E2026E2027E10,989.913,666.815,395.81.661.932.451.762.473.1021.4x15.3x12.2x1.81.81.61.51.41.12027E2028E2029EGold (million ounces) Christopher LaFemina, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7304 | clafemina@jefferies.comPatricia Hove, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 707-6362 | phove@jefferies.comAfterthe Manyar smelter ramps to fullcapacity,Freeport’s costs in Indonesiashouldbe significantly lower due toreductions in treatment charges and exportduty..Indonesia 2025E Unit Net Cash Costs/(Credits), $/lb of CopperSite Production & Delivery$1.82By-product Credits($3.08)Treatment Charges$0.31Royalties & Export Duties$0.48Unit Net Cash Costs/(Credits)($0.47)Source: Company filings, Jefferies The Long View: Freeport-McMoRanInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•While the very near-term outlook is uncertain due to macro factors, thecopper price is likely to significantly exceed consensus expectations for thenext decade.•Freeport's asset quality and operational track record are underappreciated,in our view, as is the benefit of being a major miner based in the US.•We believe Freeport could be a participant in industry consolidation.Base Case,$50, +33%•Freeport should benefit from a rising copperprice over the medium to long term. Tariffs onUS copper imports will likely be a significantpositive.•Our risk-adjusted, NPV-based price target is$50.Sustainability MattersTop-Ranked ESG Issue: 1)Energy Management.Energy accounts for a sizable portion of cash operatingcosts in the mining industry. Increased use of automation and the transition to more renewable powersources and new technologies could lead to lower energy intensity and energy cost savings for Freeport.In 2023, renewable energy sources comprised 16% of Freeport’s energy consumption.Company Target(s):1)A 15% GHG emissions intensity reduction (Scope 1 & 2) in Americas Copper by2030 and a 30% GHG emissions intensity reduction (Scope 1 & 2) in Indonesia Copper by 2030 (vs. 2018baseline).2)Executive compensation aligned with ESG metrics — 25% of annual incentive program (15%safety and 10% sustainability).3)Increase the percentage of female employees, including representationin managerial roles, to 15%.4)Implement the Tailings Standard at all other tailings storage facilities(TSFs) by August 2025.Qs to Mgmt: 1)How does Freeport plan to incorporate more renewable energy opportunities into itsoperations?ESG Sector Deep Dive: Metals & MiningPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$65, +72%•Better-than-expected economic growth, leadingto higher-than-expected prices for copper andmoly.•Development of organic growth projects.•Our risk-adjusted, NPV-based price target is$65. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View706560555045403530252020252024Downside Scenario,$25, -34%•Weaker-than-expected global growth leadingto a multiyear period of depressed prices forcopper and other metals.•Freeport is unable to deliver sizable capitalreturns.•Our risk-adjusted, NPV-based price target is$25.Catalysts•Changes in the copper price•Board approval of organic growth projects•Improved macro conditions•In the longer term, M&A as a buyer or a targetis possible 2 Exhibit 1 - Freeport-McMoRan Data Sheet.Source: Company filings, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionFreeport-McMoRanFreeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. is a US-listed resource company involved in the mining of copper, gold, and molybdenum.Company Valuation/RisksFreeport-McMoRanOur price target is NPV-based. Key risks include copper prices and operational risk.Analyst Certification:I, Christopher LaFemina, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Patricia Hove, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, butvarious regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are