: 4月工业生产：解放日后保持坚挺：:

Restricted - External Brian Tan+65 6308 5798brian.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeHongying Liu+65 6308 5310hongying.liu@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Note: Contribution points are Barclays estimatesSource: CEIC, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3. Seasonally adjusted level of electronics IP8090100110120130140150160170Apr-19Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Electronics IP (sa)seasonally adjusted levels (2019=100)Source: CEIC, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. Seasonally adjusted level of biomedicals IP6080100120140160180200220Apr-19Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Biomedicals IP (sa)seasonally adjusted levels (2019=100)Source: CEIC, Barclays Research26 May 2025 MAS: Less urgency to easeIn terms of FX policy, the resilient IP data suggest a higher risk of delay to further easingby the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).While our base case remains for the MAS toreduce the slope of its FX policy band by another 50bp, to zero, in July – likely on the 24th of themonth following the CPI release on the 23rd, orafter– we note the risk of delay to October.•We believe the MAS believes the economy cannot avoid taking some economic damage fromrising global trade tensions and that the output gap will enter negative territory -- even withthe near-term resilience of the IP data, which may still be enjoying someliftfrom front-loading. This should justify a zero slope – especially if spot SGD NEER is at the top of thepolicy band,offsettingthe central bank's intention of policy easing. While April core CPI wasunexpectedly sticky, we believe the MAS will look through the impact of the administeredprice adjustments and view underlying demand-pull conditions as stillsoft.•That said, an optically more stable core inflation path, even if supported by administeredprice adjustments, could still reduce the pressure on the MAS to ease. Likewise, the near-termresilience in the IP data could lead to the MAS preferring to wait for more clarity over theextent of the upcoming economic downturn before easing further. All this raises the risk of adelay in further FX policy easing and further marginally reduces the likelihood that the centralbank will more actively enforce a view on the "appropriate" level of the SGD NEER (seeSingapore: SGD NEER – Party like it's 2019, 7 May 2025).AppendixFIGURE 8. Industrial production growth (% y/y)% y/yINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONElectronicsBiomedicalsChemicalsPrecision Engineering WeightsQ1 2025Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25100.04.30.96.85.937.48.90.211.215.214.1-0.3-14.317.3-1.117.8-3.1-0.8-6.3-3.215.80.716.00.41.63 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Brian Tan and Hongying Liu, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or allof the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly relatedto the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with re