: 4月贸易：工作日减少，但前置装载量未减少：:

Restricted - External Shreya Sodhani+65 6308 4525shreya.sodhani@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore FIGURE 1. Customs trade balance fell to a large deficit...FIGURE 2. ...as exports weresofterdue to fewer working days18202224262830Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25ExportsImportssa levels (USD bn)Source: Ministry of Commerce, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchSource: Ministry of Commerce, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. Import breakdownDec-24Feb-25Apr-25Mining and fuelAgriculture-1001020Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Fuel lubricantsCore raw materialsCapital goodsConsumer goodsJewelryVehiclesArms and ammunitionsImports (%y/y)%y/y, pp contribution to headlineSource: Ministry of Commerce, Haver Analytics, Barclays ResearchSource: Ministry of Commerce, Haver Analytics, Barclays Researchaccount deficit. We estimate the deficit could be higher than USD2bn,with customs tradedeficit closing the entire ~USD2bn monthly gap between BoP trade and customs trade.Additionally, tourist arrivals fell in April to 2.5mn from 2.7mn in March, in line with the drop inhigh-spending European visitors.Exports•Exports of precious stones and jewellery – which include gold – slowed m/m in April butremained elevated, as gold prices continued to rise. We think the somewhatsofterexports fortwo straight months could have also been in anticipation of the continued rise in prices in thenear future.•Excluding this segment, core exports rose by 6.4% y/y, less than the 10.2% headline, andalsosofterthan 12.2% in March.°Core manufactured exports rose 11.6% y/y (Mar: 17.3%). Electronic machines drove the y/yincrease, rising by 34.4% y/y (Mar: +47.8%), with fewer working days. Exports also rose forelectrical equipment, plastic and rubber products. Auto exports fell. FIGURE 3. Export breakdown-15-10-505101520Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Precious stones and jewelryCore manufacturingExports (%y/y)%y/y, pp contribution to headline26 May 2025 2 °Agricultural shipments plunged 19.4% y/y (Mar: -0.5%), dragged by rice exports. Riceshipments fell 43.8% y/y, given the priceeffectwhich drove exports up last year. The dropin rice exportsoffsetsthe increase in the export of sugar and rubber.ImportsImports of precious stones and jewellery – which include gold – increased April, despite highprices, likely as even higher prices were expected due to rising global uncertainty.Fuel shipments, on the other hand, slipped m/m, as global oil prices cameoff.Core imports, excluding fuel and jewellery rose 17.2% y/y, higher than the headline 16.1%growth as well as an increase from 11.4% in March.While we maintain our view thatdomestic demand is slowing, we think at least part of the strong increase in imports is aresult of Chinese overcapacity.°Capital goods imports rose 27.5% y/y (Mar: +15.9%), almost stable in sequentialterms. Imports of electrical machinery and parts rose from March and drove the increase.°Consumer goods imports rose 11.9% y/y, slowing from March's 19.0% growth. That said,reflecting China's supply to the Thai market, on a sequential basis both imports ofelectrical appliances and vehicles continued to rise.°Raw materials imports ex-jewellery rose 14.1%, picking up from the 5.7% rise in March. Theincrease was driven by a surge in imports of electrical and electronic equipment and partsthereof, partly due to the low base for electronic integrated circuits. ••• 3 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Shreya Sodhani, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of thi