: 政策支持下的混合数据：:

Restricted - External Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongYingke Zhou+852 2903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongYing Zhang+852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Source: Wind, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3. E-commerce revenue growth-6-4-20246810121416182022Q12022Q32023Q1% y/yAlibaba revenue growthNBS retail sales growthSource: Wind, Barclays Research26 May 2025 Source: Wind, Barclays ResearchProperty investment remains a big drag on growthThe real estate sector showed more signs of weakness, with deeper contractions in propertyinvestment, sales and new starts (Figure 5 and 6). Moreover, home prices fell at a faster pace inApril, diminishing hopes of the property market bottoming out. On a m/m basis, home priceshave fallen for 24 consecutive months, declining 0.4% in April, versus a 0.2% drop in March.More than 90% (64 cities) of the 70 cities that we track posted m/m declines in existing homeprices, versus 56 cities in March. Property investment came in weaker than expected, registeringan 11.3% y/y decline in April, following the 10% drop in March.We expect property investment to contract by 10% again in 2025, following three consecutiveyears of ~10% declines during 2022-24. Although housing inventory has likely passed the peakrecorded in Q4 24, it remains elevated at ~20 months of national property sales as of the end ofApril. Given that a healthy level is considered to be ~12 months, this suggests that housingdemand and supply remain very unbalanced, and more adjustment is needed. 2 Source: Wind, Barclays Research26 May 2025 Non-property investment slowed from a high level; watch equipmentupgradingInfrastructure investment showed signs of moderation. Following the double-digit growth inMarch (12.6%), infrastructure investment slowed to 9.6% y/y in April (Figure 6). We think thelarger-than-expected rollback intariffswill reduce the urgency for the Chinese government toroll out more infrastructure projects, adding downward pressure to infrastructure investment inthe coming quarters.Moreover, manufacturing investment growth eased to 8.2% y/y in April, from 9.2% in March.That slowdown, along with falling private-sector credit demand, likely reflects manufacturersbecoming more cautious about scaling up capex investment astariffuncertainties remainedhigh. However, during our trip to China, we noted the state sector, including central and localSOEs, are stepping upeffortsto implement equipment upgrading and undertaking energy-related investments. This comesafterthe stronger than expected April credit data, which wasmostly driven by faster and front-loaded government bond issuance amid policy front-loading (Figure 7 and 8). In our view, this could lend some support to manufacturing investmentgrowth in the coming months.That said, while the improved credit impulse is encouraging, we think the boost to economicgrowth from the rebound in credit impulse this time may not be as strong as in the previousrounds. We think the government bond induced rebound in credit impulse reflects 1) aCNY1.6trn increase in budget deficit to CNY5.66trn financed by CGB and LGB, 2) a CNY0.5trnincrease to CNY4.4trn in LGSB in 2025, 3) a CNY0.3trn increase in special CGB to CNY1.3trn in2025, and 4) a CNY2.8trn LG/LGFV debt swap quota in 2025 (including CNY2trn annual quotaapproved in November 2024 and CNY0.8trn quota from LGSB). Given that the proceeds fromCNY2.8trn LG/LGFV debt swap would likely be used to repay LGFV debt to banks, we think theboost to investment and real economy could be smaller compared with the cases whereproceeds are used to directly to support the real economy. 3 Source: Wind, Barclays Research26 May 2025 IP growth held up, likely supported by still-robust exportsThe upside surprise in the April data came mainly from industrial production (IP), with 6.1%growth in April, versus 6.5% in Q1 and 7.7% in March (Bloomberg consensus: 5.7%, Barclays:5.5%). We think the resilience in IP growth was consistent with still-robust exports in April. IPgrowth was led by the industrial robot and solar cells sectors, while property-related sectors(eg, cement, steel) weakened.We think the 90-daytariffceasefire could push exporters to front-load shipments, suggestingexport growth is likely to remain solid at ~6-8% in Q2, before slowing visibly to 0% in H2 in viewof a likely payback from strong H1 exports. For 2025 as a whole, we expect export growth of 4%y/y, down from ~6% in 2024, but still close to average print of 4.7% growth in the past decade.We expect the current account surplus to remain decent, in the range of 2-2.5% of GDP, in 2025versus 2.2% of GDP in 2024, in view of slow but still-decent exports and falling imports. Ourforecast, if it materializes, would be strong compared with the average print of 1.6% of GDP inthe past decade.Macro policy: reduced likelihood for new stimulus before SeptemberOn the macro policy front, we think the 90-daytariff