US_信用_Alpha_Rebound_完成

Restricted - External BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, USDominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US US Investment GradeTop Catalyst Ideas: Less silver in the lining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33We identify 12 actionable, fundamental catalyst-driven trade ideas with a skew to the negative.Our strategy team sees total return opportunities in long-end BBBs.US High YieldBest Ideas: The Breakfast Club. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40We include our best 21 USD longs/Overweights, top eight shorts/Underweights, and one swap.The combination of still-healthy hard data and weakening high-frequency indicators is likely tocreate an opportunity for credit dispersion.US/European High YieldCross-currency relative value. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48€HY looks wide to $HY and compared to €-$ IG cash and CDS. There is a marginal yield pickup infavor of €HY versus $HY, but decreasing hedging costs make this a short-term opportunity. Wescreen for single-name dislocations based on the relative yielddifferentialacross bothcurrencies.US Credit Derivatives and MacroTracking the performance of CDS fallen angels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53We examine CDS fallen angel performance post the downgrade of WHR, the first in on-the-runCDX.IG in over two years, and find that they tend to underperform significantly into thedowngrade and more modestly post downgrade, tighten, and then widen into the roll, andunderperform initially post roll.US SecuritizedABS: Studying up on student loans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59Recent changes in student loan policy should have a limitedeffecton overall consumerspending, but plenty of knock-oneffects.Collateral performance will likely weaken for sectorsthat are most exposed to lower-income/near-prime borrowers. 2 US Credit AlphaOverviewRisk assets completed their reversal from the April lowsafterthe de-escalation of US-China tensions last weekend. Weview this a major improvement and boost our US growthforecasts. As a result, we also revise our credit spread outlooktighter.Rebound completeMarkets completed their rebound from the Aprilsell-offthis week amid the de-escalation of theUS-China trade war over the weekend, with the S&P 500 now flat on the year and credit spreadstighter than pre-"Liberation Day" levels. Investment grade spreads were 8bp tighter and highyield spreads were 42bp tighter from May 9 through Wednesday's close. High yieldoutperformed, beta-adjusted, and is now 33bp inside of April 2 levels, while IG is only 2bpthrough.The trade war de-escalation improves our economic outlook.The largetariffreductions onUS-China trade push the overall trade-weightedtariffrate to about 14%, substantially below theroughly 25% that we estimate has been in place over the past month. While trade conversationsare still ongoing and there could be some re-escalation, we believe that risks have beensignificantly reduced. We remove our base case call for a mild recession and revise growth to+0.5% 4Q/4Q (from -0.1%). In terms of inflation, we now expect core PCE of 3.3% 4Q/4Q in 2025(from 3.7% prior). In the labor market, we expect theunemployment rate to top out at 4.3% thisyear (from 4.6%), in 4Q. Finally, we adjust our FOMC forecast to only one 25bp rate cut (from two25bp cuts), in December.Therefore, we revised our credit spread outlook tighter.We expect spreads to end the year at95-100bp for investment grade and 325-350bp for high yield, versus our mid-March forecasts of120-125bp and 400-425bp, respectively ( Figure 2). This implies FY25 excess returns of -0.5% toflat for IG and total returns of 5.5% to 6.5% for high yield. In the near term, we think the path ofleast resistance is likely to be tighter, given momentum, technicals, and attractive all-in yields,particularly in IG, where yields are 20bp higher month-to-date even though spreads are 12bptighter. We see the best relative value opportunities in the rally's laggards: investment gradecyclicals, BBBs, and Bs. See this week's first focus article for more details.There has been "big, beautiful" upward pressure on yields.It's no secret that the US fiscalpicture is not good, and the first iteration of the House version of the tax bill adds several trilliondollars to the US 10-year deficit, more than apparent at first glance (see "One big, beautiful"deficit). 30y Treasury yields are now up more than 50bp from the lows in April, close to the post-pandemic highs, even though GDP growth this year will almost certainly be weaker than in 2024.This is also partly because of concerns about 2025 inflation, partly due to foreign investors'allocating some capital away from US assets and partly because the risk of a recession seems tohave been lessened by thetariffpull-back. As markets absorb the details of the new tax bill andrealize that deficits are li