流动性｜存款利率调降不代表资金存单承压

证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com相关报告多下行》2025-05-242025-05-222025-05-21 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1存款利率调降不代表资金和存单承压...................................................................................................52央行：逆回购和MLF整体净投放......................................................................................................103政府债：下周政府债净缴款下降至3531亿元...................................................................................114票据：票据利率先下行后震荡.............................................................................................................135汇率：统计期继续升值，人民币即期汇率录得7.18.........................................................................136市场资金供需：国有行融出下降，非银降低杠杆.............................................................................147CD：需求情绪迅速走弱，存单收益率上行.......................................................................................187.1一级发行市场：本周存单净融资再次转负，存单价格上升........................................................187.2二级交易市场：机构资金预期中性，不再抢跑，非银呈现配置性............................................218风险提示：.............................................................................................................................................22图1.存款利率调降和国有行融出情况.........................................................................................................5图2.本周国有行存单净融资并未大幅放量.................................................................................................6图3.本周国有行存单加权发行久期仍处于年内低位.................................................................................6图4. 1年期MLF净投放情况........................................................................................................................7图5.国有行融出回到4月附近.....................................................................................................................7图6.一周资金和存单关键点跟踪.................................................................................................................8图7.下周资金扰动因素.................................................................................................................................9图8.央行周度操作和资金价格走势...........................................................................................................10图9.逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性...............................................................................................................10图10.统计期短期资金到期情况.................................................................................................................10图11.统计期或有中长期资金到期情况.....................................................................................................10图12.政府债净融资和缴款情况.................................................................................................................11图13.政府债净融资进度.............................................................................................................................11图14.结构视角政府债净融资量和进度情况.............................................................................................11图15.国债净融资进度.................................................................................................................................12图16.地方政府债净融资进度.....................................................................................................................12图17.政府债发行和缴款日历.....................................................................................................................12内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图18.票据绝对利率走势.............................................................................................................................13图19.票据相对利率走势.............................................................................................................................13图20.即期汇率相对中间价贬值情况.........................................................................................................14图21. USDCNY、USDCNH掉期点...........................................................................................................14图22. USDCNY和中间价，跌停价之间关系............................................................................................14图23.逆周期因子情况.................................................................................................................................14图24.资金供需情况.....................................................................................................................................15图25.银行体系资金融出情况.....................................................................................................................15图26.国有行资金融出情况.........................................................................................................................15图27.股份行资金融出情况.........................................................................................................................15图28.货基资金融出情况..........................................................................................................................