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银行0520下调存款挂牌利率点评：本轮存款降息的成因与影响

金融 2025-05-23 刘呈祥,吴文鑫开源证券有梦想的人不睡觉

Okay, let's talk about the "Big Bang Theory". I'd like to know more about the "Sheldon Cooper" character. Sheldon is undoubtedly one of the most fascinating and complex characters in modern television. He's a brilliant physicist with a very specific personality.

Okay, let's dive in. What are some key aspects of Sheldon's personality?

Sheldon is undeniably a character defined by his high intelligence and unique personality traits. Here are some key aspects:

Intellectual Brilliance: As a theoretical physicist, Sheldon possesses an extraordinary intellect. He's highly knowledgeable, often speaks in a very precise, technical, or scientific manner, and has a deep understanding of complex scientific concepts. His brilliance is both his defining feature and a source of much of the humor in the show.
Extreme Social Awkwardness and Awkwardness Intolerance: Sheldon is profoundly uncomfortable in social situations and is extremely sensitive to perceived social awkwardness, both his own and others'. He often misinterprets social cues, has difficulty forming and maintaining relationships outside of his immediate circle, and is deeply unsettled by anything that deviates from his expected social norms.
Eccentric and Unconventional Behavior: Sheldon has a very specific way of doing things, often driven by his need for control and predictability. This includes his elaborate routines (like his "Sheldon dance" when he's happy), specific eating habits (like his requirement for a certain brand of ice cream), and his distinctive mannerisms and speech patterns (like his catchphrases "Bazinga!" and "Did I do that?").
Need for Control and Order: Sheldon has an intense need for control and predictability in his environment and interactions. He feels anxious and uncomfortable when things deviate from his established plans or routines. This need for control extends to his living space, his interactions with others, and even his internal emotional state.
Intellectual Superiority Complex: Stemming from his brilliance, Sheldon often displays a sense of intellectual superiority. He can be condescending or dismissive of others' opinions or intelligence, especially when he percees he is being challenged or when he believes they lack understanding of a topic he deems important.
Emotional Inarticulacy and Immaturity: Sheldon struggles to express his emotions in a healthy or conventional way. He often acts out, uses scientific analogies to explain complex feelings, or becomes angry and withdrawn when he doesn't get his way or when others don't understand him. He has a childlike or immature side, particularly when it comes to romance and emotional connection.
Strong Loyalty (Once Earned): Despite his many quirks, Sheldon can be fiercely loyal to the people he considers his "pack" – primarily his mother, Howard Wolowitz, Raj Koothrappali, and later Amy Farrah Fowler. Once he accepts someone into his circle, he can be very protective and devoted.

These aspects combine to create a character who is both hilarious and deeply relatable (in his own strange way) to many viewers. His unique blend of genius and social dysfunction makes him one of the most memorable characters on television.

银行2025年05月23日投资评级：看好（维持）行业走势图数据来源：聚源《低基数下的大行存贷增速差改善—4月央行信贷收支表要点解读》-2025.5.15《存款读数改善，政府债提速支撑社融—4月金融数据点评》-2025.5.14《公募基金改革下的银行增配机遇—行业点评报告》-2025.5.11-19%-10%0%10%19%29%2024-05 2024-092025-01银行相关研究报告 1/24 沪深300 目录1、背景：2024年高息存款整改见效，上市行付息率降至1.98%............................................................................................41.1、近年来国有行付息率抬升，2024年开始下移，2024H2降幅扩大...........................................................................41.2、从监管思路推演，2025年难有超自律存款，存款成本或进一步降低.....................................................................52、测算：本轮降息及高息定存重定价的成本改善效果.............................................................................................................82.1、此次下调预计支撑上市行2025年/2026年净息差+2.5BP/+2.1BP............................................................................82.2、高息零售定存重定价，或压降2025年存款成本率8.5BP.........................................................................................93、存款降息后，资金面、债市、股市的传导链条推演...........................................................................................................123.1、资金面：关注存款脱媒，银行缺存款或再反馈至同业负债定价............................................................................123.2、债市：银行负carry减轻，非银配置利好中短信用债和存单..................................................................................133.2.1、银行自营：负carry阶段性缓解，债贷比价有效性提升...............................................................................133.2.2、理财：存款降息后，流入理财是相对循序渐进的过程.................................................................................153.3、股市：红利逻辑加持，稳定股息品种或估值提升....................................................................................................184、投资建议..................................................................................................................................................................................195、风险提示..................................................................................................................................................................................20附表：各银行最新存款挂牌利率一览..........................................................................................................................................21图表目录图1：2024年上市银行负债成本率整体步入下行通道，2024H2降幅扩大.............................................................................4图2：2024和2025年初，大型银行和中小行的存贷增速差（各项存款yoy-各项贷款yoy）出现两段明显背离..............5图3：2024年初中小行单位保证金存款下滑明显（亿元）.......................................................................................................6图4：部分股份行银承保证金比例同比下降................................................................................................................................6图5：2024Q1理财规模增长较好，2025Q1增长力度同比减弱（亿元）................................................................................6图6：2024年“手工补息”阶段性增强了大行的揽储能力，但加重成本负担（亿元）.......................................................7图7：近期消费贷提价及中小行定存利率大面积补降均反映：资产端降息需要银行体系负债成本有效降低....................7图8：上市银行贷存重定价缺口，国有行主要为负缺口（2024A，年）...............................................................................10图9：近年来上市银行存款结构，储蓄存款定期化显著..........................................................................................................10图10：近年来的上市银行存款结构：个人存款定期化趋势显著............................................................................................11图11：2025年初以来，大行融出现压缩后恢复（亿元）.......................................................................................................12图12：即使考虑到投资国债的税收返还，配债收益和负债成本也接近倒挂........................................................................14图13：银行资产比价效应从2019年后非常明显，债-贷综合净收益率差处于[-24BP , 72BP]区间....................................15图14：存款挂牌利率下调当周（图中黄色为下调时点），理财规模并不一定增长较快......................................................16图15：截至2025Q1末，理财底层资产占比较年初上升的有公募基金、回购、债券、非标（万亿元）.........................17图16：测算2025Q4、2026Q1分别有1.2万亿元、1.2万亿元协议存款到期（万亿元）...................................................17附图1：2025-05-20全面降息10BP（%）...................................................................................................................................22表1：不同RWA增速情景下的ROE与净息差理论平衡点.......................................................................................................8表2：假设本轮所有上市银行均跟进下调，有望正向支撑上市行2025年/ 2026年净息差2.5BP / 2.1BP.........................9表3：测算上市行2022年初至今多轮存款挂牌利率下降，将压降上市银行存款成本率约8.5BP（仅零售）.................12表4：截至2025-05-21，部分银行2025年同业存单备案额度使用率超80%（存续额统计日为2025-05-21）.................13表5：FTP定价曲线应能反映银行实际边际筹资成本..............................................................................................................14表6：商业银行大类资产比价：债券综合收益率低于企业贷款、按揭贷款..........................................................................15表7：2024年到期的定存向理财转化率约为6.6%，假设2025年提升至7.5%，理财或增长至32万亿元.......................16 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明2/24 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明3/24表8：央行公开市场操作一览：4月MLF净投放5000亿元（亿元）...................................................................................18表9：DDM模型测算下，必要回报率为6%时测算PB接近当前水平，部分银行仍具配置价值.......................................19表10：受益标的一览.............

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